Climate Risk in Warragul, VIC

Warragul, Victoria· Baw Baw· 3820

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Warragul faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also a concern. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly flooding and heat. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Warragul

increasing

Flood

65/100

Warragul faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and the Tarago River. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Warragul has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

60/100

Warragul is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Warragul is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards.

Key drivers:

·Distance from coast

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Warragul

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Warragul is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Warragul faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and the Tarago River. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Warragul is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Warragul has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price impacts.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Review insurance options and costs.
4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Tarago River
Elevation Range: 124m - 180m
Flood Zone: Areas near the Tarago River are designated as flood zones.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Located near significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Management Overlay may apply to some properties.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable.
Erosion Risk: Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting properties near the Tarago River.

Source

2009

bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the wider region, highlighting the bushfire risk.

Source

2019

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Warragul, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.5(+0.5)
heat	60	6.7(+0.7)	7.2(+1.2)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Warragul is projected to experience an increase in flood and heatwave risks under a high emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood mitigation infrastructure, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation and creating a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Building Standards

Long-term

Implement stricter building codes to ensure new buildings are more resilient to climate change impacts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Warragul's Climate Risk Profile

Warragul, located in the Baw Baw Shire, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding from the Tarago River and increased heatwave frequency and intensity. Bushfire risk is also present due to the surrounding bushland.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for riverine flooding during heavy rainfall events. Climate change projections indicate an increase in rainfall intensity, which could lead to more frequent and severe flooding.

Heatwaves are also expected to become more common and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect may also exacerbate the impact of heatwaves in built-up areas.

Bushfire risk is present due to the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the risk of bushfires in the region.

While coastal risks are minimal due to Warragul's inland location, the community should still be aware of the broader impacts of climate change and take steps to adapt to the changing climate.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Baw Baw Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Warragul?

The main climate risks in Warragul are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Flooding is primarily from the Tarago River, while heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense. Bushfire risk is present due to the surrounding bushland.

How is the council addressing climate change?

The Baw Baw Shire Council has a climate strategy in place to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes measures to improve energy efficiency, promote sustainable transport, and manage flood risk.

What can I do to prepare for a flood?

To prepare for a flood, you should check flood maps to see if your property is at risk, develop a flood plan, and have an emergency kit ready. You should also consider flood insurance.

How can I protect myself during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should stay indoors in air-conditioned buildings, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

What should I do if there is a bushfire?

If there is a bushfire, you should follow the advice of emergency services. If you are in a high-risk area, you should evacuate early. If you are staying to defend your property, you should have a bushfire survival plan and be prepared to put it into action.