Climate Risk Profile: Warrak, VIC

Warrak, Victoria· Pyrenees Shire· 3377

Medium Risk

Updated June 2026

Warrak is a rural locality in Victoria, facing moderate risks from bushfires, floods and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of heatwaves and flooding events. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Warrak

increasing

Flood

45/100

Warrak faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to localized flooding.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use

stable

Bushfire

60/100

The area around Warrak is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. The presence of nearby bushland increases the risk.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures

increasing

Heat

50/100

Warrak experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Warrak is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Warrak

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Warrak experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Warrak faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to localized flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use
·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Warrak is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area around Warrak is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. The presence of nearby bushland increases the risk.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures
·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Review emergency preparedness plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Mount William Creek
Elevation Range: 250-300m
Flood Zone: Low-lying areas near Mount William Creek

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to state forest
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Management Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas, impacting some properties.

Source

2009

bushfireMajor

The Black Saturday bushfires impacted the region, causing significant damage and loss of life in nearby areas.

Source

2019

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in high temperatures and increased demand on emergency services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.0(+0.5)
bushfire	60	6.2(+0.2)	6.3(+0.3)
heat	50	5.5(+0.5)	6.0(+1.0)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Warrak is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and an increased risk of flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Preparedness Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive plan that includes clearing vegetation around properties, preparing a bushfire survival kit, and knowing evacuation routes.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to better manage stormwater runoff and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning Systems

Immediate

Establish a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through efficient irrigation practices and water-saving appliances.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Warrak's Climate Risk Profile

Warrak, located in the Pyrenees Shire of Victoria, is a rural community that is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns for Warrak are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. The surrounding bushland makes the area vulnerable to bushfires during the dry summer months. Intense rainfall events can lead to localized flooding, impacting properties and infrastructure.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the region. Warmer temperatures will likely lead to more frequent and severe heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Changes in rainfall patterns could increase the risk of both droughts and intense flooding events.

Understanding these risks and taking proactive measures is crucial for the community of Warrak. This includes implementing bushfire preparedness plans, improving drainage infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, and developing strategies to cope with extreme heat.

Residents should stay informed about weather forecasts and warnings, and take necessary precautions to protect themselves and their properties. Collaboration between local government, emergency services, and the community is essential to build resilience to climate change impacts.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Pyrenees Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Warrak?

Warrak faces risks from bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How can I prepare my property for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your home, prepare a bushfire survival kit, and have an evacuation plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

Contact the Pyrenees Shire Council or visit their website for flood maps and information.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Pyrenees Shire Council is developing and implementing strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Check their website for details.