Climate Risk in Warrandyte South, Victoria

Warrandyte South, Victoria
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Warrandyte South faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather conditions.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Warrandyte South

increasing

Flood

65/100

Warrandyte South has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Yarra River and other waterways. Properties close to these waterways are more vulnerable. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Warrandyte South faces a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. The area is prone to dry conditions and strong winds, increasing the likelihood of bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire weather.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Dry conditions
increasing

Heat

40/100

Warrandyte South experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected due to climate change. This can impact vulnerable populations and increase energy demand.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Warrandyte South is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Warrandyte South

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Warrandyte South experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected due to climate change. This can impact vulnerable populations and increase energy demand.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Warrandyte South has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Yarra River and other waterways. Properties close to these waterways are more vulnerable. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Warrandyte South is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Warrandyte South faces a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. The area is prone to dry conditions and strong winds, increasing the likelihood of bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire weather.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Dry conditions
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Yarra River
Elevation Range
50-150m
Flood Zone
Partial

Areas near the Yarra River are most susceptible to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The entire suburb is designated as a bushfire-prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

1934
floodMajor

Major flooding of the Yarra River caused widespread damage in Warrandyte and surrounding areas.

Source
1969
bushfireMajor

Widespread bushfires impacted the region, causing significant property damage and environmental destruction.

Source
2009
heatwaveCatastrophic

The Black Saturday bushfires were preceded by a severe heatwave, exacerbating the fire risk.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding along the Yarra River impacted low-lying areas of Warrandyte South.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat404.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Warrandyte South is projected to experience an increase in flood and bushfire risk due to more intense rainfall and hotter, drier conditions. Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood mitigation measures such as levees, drainage improvements, and flood-proofing of properties.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies such as fuel reduction, community education, and improved building codes.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education

Long-term

Raise community awareness about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops, information sessions, and online resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Sustainable Urban Planning

Long-term

Incorporate climate change considerations into urban planning and development decisions to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Warrandyte South's Climate Risk Profile

Warrandyte South, located in Victoria, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to the Yarra River and surrounding waterways makes it vulnerable to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change projections indicate an increase in rainfall intensity, which could exacerbate flood events in the future.

The area is also at a high risk of bushfires due to its location near extensive bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfire weather, posing a significant threat to the community.

Heatwaves are another concern for Warrandyte South, with average temperatures expected to rise in the coming years. This can lead to heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location, the community should still be aware of the broader impacts of climate change and take steps to adapt to the changing environment.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Warrandyte South?

The main risks are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

Consider flood-proofing measures such as raising electrical outlets, installing flood barriers, and improving drainage.

What should I do during a bushfire?

Follow the advice of emergency services, evacuate if necessary, and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Warrandyte South?

Consult the Manningham City Council website, the Bureau of Meteorology, and the Victorian State Emergency Service.

Is Warrandyte South a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While Warrandyte South has many positive attributes, potential buyers should carefully consider the climate risks, particularly flooding and bushfires, and factor these into their decision-making process. Properties in higher-risk areas may face increased insurance costs and potential devaluation.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections