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Climate Risk Profile: Waubra, VIC

Waubra, Victoria· Pyrenees· 3352
Medium Risk
Updated June 2026

Waubra is a rural town in Victoria facing increasing risks from bushfires, heatwaves and flooding. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.1
Bushfire
6.8
Heat
4.7
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Waubra

increasing

Flood

41/100

Waubra has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events exceeding local drainage capacity. Low-lying areas near creeks are most vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
increasing

Bushfire

68/100

Waubra faces a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to grasslands and forested areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

47/100

Waubra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Waubra is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Waubra

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

47/100

Waubra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.1

2050

5.6

Data source

flood Risk

41/100

Waubra has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events exceeding local drainage capacity. Low-lying areas near creeks are most vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Waubra is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

68/100

Waubra faces a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to grasslands and forested areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mount Emu Creek
Elevation Range
350-400m
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near Mount Emu Creek

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during periods of heavy rainfall.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to grasslands and forested areas
Planning Overlay
DELWP bushfire prone area map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area has a history of bushfires, with several significant events in recent decades.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average temperatures are projected to increase by 1-2 degrees Celsius by 2050.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas near Mount Emu Creek.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire burned through nearby grasslands, threatening properties in Waubra.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in record high temperatures and increased demand for emergency services.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred after a period of intense rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood414.4(+0.3)4.7(+0.6)
bushfire687.3(+0.5)7.8(+1.0)
heat475.1(+0.4)5.5(+0.8)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Waubra is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly bushfires and heatwaves. Rainfall patterns may become more erratic, leading to increased flood risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a community bushfire plan

Immediate

Create a plan that outlines evacuation routes, emergency contacts, and property preparation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Establish a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide advice on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce the strain on water resources during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Waubra's Climate Risk Profile

Waubra, located in the Pyrenees region of Victoria, is a rural community that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding, all of which are projected to become more frequent and intense in the coming decades.

Bushfire risk is particularly high due to the surrounding grasslands and forested areas. Hot, dry summers combined with strong winds create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common, posing a significant health risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on neighbors during heatwaves.

Flooding can occur due to intense rainfall events that overwhelm local drainage systems. Low-lying areas near creeks are particularly vulnerable. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place to protect their property.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of individual preparedness, community resilience, and government action. By working together, the community can mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure a sustainable future for Waubra.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

Pyrenees Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Waubra?

The main climate change risks facing Waubra are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.

How can I prepare my property for a bushfire?

To prepare your property for a bushfire, clear vegetation around your home, maintain your gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. You should also ensure that you have adequate insurance coverage.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on neighbors. Avoid strenuous activity and wear light-colored clothing.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Waubra?

You can find information about flood risks in Waubra on the Pyrenees Shire Council website or by contacting the council directly. You can also consult flood maps and historical flood data.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Pyrenees Shire Council is developing a climate strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This strategy will include measures to improve energy efficiency, promote renewable energy, and enhance community resilience.

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