Climate Risk Assessment: Wynnum, VIC

Wynnum, Victoria

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Wynnum faces moderate risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should take steps to prepare for these challenges.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Wynnum

increasing

Flood

65/100

Wynnum faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces

stable

Bushfire

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Wynnum is relatively low due to the lack of significant bushland within close proximity to residential areas. However, grassfires can still pose a threat during dry periods.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Increased temperatures

increasing

Heat

60/100

Wynnum experiences a moderate risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increased temperatures can place stress on vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

increasing

Coastal

50/100

Wynnum faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and storm surges. Low-lying coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation and erosion.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — cold fronts and gusty winds

stable

Storm

32/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling needs

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Wynnum

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Wynnum experiences a moderate risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increased temperatures can place stress on vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Wynnum faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Wynnum faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and storm surges. Low-lying coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Wynnum is relatively low due to the lack of significant bushland within close proximity to residential areas. However, grassfires can still pose a threat during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Increased temperatures
·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise.
4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range: 5-15m
Flood Zone: Partial

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: >5km
Planning Overlay: None
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 2.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted several properties in low-lying areas following heavy rainfall.

Source

2009

heatwaveMajor

Prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source

2018

stormModerate

Severe storm caused flash flooding and power outages across the suburb.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	30	3.2(+0.2)	3.5(+0.5)
heat	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
coastal	50	5.3(+0.3)	5.8(+0.8)

By 2030, Wynnum is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks. Coastal hazards are also expected to become more pronounced.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to increase capacity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning System

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Defenses

Long-term

Invest in coastal defenses, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to protect low-lying areas from sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through education and incentives to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Wynnum's Climate Risk Profile

Wynnum, Victoria, is a suburb that faces a range of climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. The suburb's proximity to waterways and low-lying areas makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding from intense rainfall events. While the risk of bushfire is relatively low, grassfires can still pose a threat during dry periods.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Wynnum, placing stress on vulnerable populations and infrastructure. Rising average temperatures and the urban heat island effect contribute to this risk. Coastal hazards, such as sea level rise and storm surges, also pose a threat to low-lying coastal areas of Wynnum.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Increased rainfall intensity will likely lead to more frequent and severe flooding events. Rising temperatures will increase the risk of heatwaves and bushfires. Sea level rise will increase the vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation and erosion.

Residents of Wynnum should take steps to prepare for these challenges. This includes developing emergency plans, investing in flood protection measures, and taking steps to reduce their carbon footprint. Local authorities also have a role to play in mitigating climate risks through infrastructure improvements and land-use planning.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · EMV

Local Government Resources

City of Melbourne

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Wynnum?

Wynnum faces risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards, which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Wynnum?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value, while those in less vulnerable areas may be less affected.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Wynnum?

The City of Melbourne is implementing a range of measures to mitigate climate risks, including upgrading drainage infrastructure and promoting water conservation.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Wynnum?

Consider installing flood barriers, raising electrical appliances, and ensuring proper drainage around your property.

What resources are available to help me cope with heatwaves in Wynnum?

The City of Melbourne provides cooling centers and information on how to stay safe during heatwaves. Check the council website for details.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Wynnum, use our analysis tool.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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