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Climate Risk in Gosnells, Western Australia

Gosnells, Western Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Gosnells faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing heatwave intensity and flood potential. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Gosnells

increasing

Flood

60/100

Gosnells faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Canning River and local drainage systems. Increased rainfall intensity can overwhelm existing infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

40/100

Bushfire risk in Gosnells is moderate due to proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of fire ignition and spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry summers
  • ·Accumulation of flammable vegetation
increasing

Heat

70/100

Gosnells is experiencing increasing heatwave frequency and intensity. Urban areas retain heat, leading to higher nighttime temperatures.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

20/100

Coastal risk is low in Gosnells due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Gosnells

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Gosnells is experiencing increasing heatwave frequency and intensity. Urban areas retain heat, leading to higher nighttime temperatures.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Gosnells faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Canning River and local drainage systems. Increased rainfall intensity can overwhelm existing infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Coastal risk is low in Gosnells due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bushfire risk in Gosnells is moderate due to proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of fire ignition and spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry summers
  • ·Accumulation of flammable vegetation
  • ·Human activity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options.
  • 4.Review council climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Canning River
Elevation Range
10-30 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Canning River are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the river.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km of bushland areas
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and clear flammable materials.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Elderly and those with chronic illnesses are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
20 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas near the Canning River.

Source
2011
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Gosnells threatened properties but was contained by firefighters.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions for heat-related illnesses.

Source
2021
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to intense rainfall, affecting some residential areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal202.02.0

By 2030, Gosnells is projected to experience increased heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a higher risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heat Action Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement heat action plans to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire risk mitigation measures, including fuel reduction and community education.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce strain on water resources during drier periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Gosnells's Climate Risk Profile

Gosnells, located in Western Australia, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding from the Canning River and increased heatwave frequency and intensity. Bushfire risk is also a factor due to the proximity of bushland areas.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for increased rainfall intensity to overwhelm drainage systems. The Canning River poses a risk of inundation during heavy rainfall events. Urban development and aging infrastructure contribute to the vulnerability.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect exacerbates the problem, leading to higher nighttime temperatures. Reduced vegetation cover further contributes to the heat.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with dry summers increasing the likelihood of fire ignition and spread. Accumulation of flammable vegetation and human activity are contributing factors. While coastal risks are low due to its inland location, the suburb is still indirectly affected by broader climate change impacts.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES · Department of Water and Environmental Regulation

Local Government Resources

City of Gosnells

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Gosnells?

The main risks are increased flooding from the Canning River, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

How is the City of Gosnells addressing climate change?

The City of Gosnells is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to address these risks, including upgrading drainage infrastructure and promoting water conservation.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

What should I do to prepare for a bushfire?

Clear flammable materials from around your home, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Gosnells?

You can find information about flood risks on the City of Gosnells website and the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation website.

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