Climate Risk in Karrinyup, Western Australia

Karrinyup, Western Australia· City of Stirling· 6018
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Karrinyup faces moderate climate risks, particularly from bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. These risks are projected to increase over the coming decades due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Karrinyup

increasing

Flood

40/100

Karrinyup faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and localized drainage issues. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

60/100

Karrinyup has a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Karrinyup experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Karrinyup faces a moderate coastal risk due to its proximity to the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are potential threats.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Karrinyup

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Karrinyup experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Karrinyup faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and localized drainage issues. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Sea level rise

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Karrinyup faces a moderate coastal risk due to its proximity to the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are potential threats.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Karrinyup has a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Windy conditions

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Gwelup
Elevation Range
5-40 meters
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall, particularly in low-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and be prepared for bushfire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the Perth metropolitan area.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
2 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Low to Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Karrinyup, affecting some residential areas.

Source
2011
bushfireMinor

A small bushfire occurred near Karrinyup, but was quickly contained by fire services.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Perth, including Karrinyup, leading to increased hospital admissions.

Source
2015
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure in Karrinyup.

Source
2021
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall, impacting some roads and properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.2(+0.2)4.8(+0.8)
bushfire606.1(+0.1)6.3(+0.3)
heat505.4(+0.4)6.5(+1.5)
coastal606.5(+0.5)7.8(+1.8)

By 2030, Karrinyup is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk under the RCP4.5 scenario. Heat and coastal risks are expected to increase the most, followed by flood risk. Bushfire risk is projected to remain relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of localized flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Immediate

Conduct regular fuel reduction burns and maintain firebreaks to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect coastal areas from erosion

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to reduce the risk of coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Near-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through education and incentives to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Karrinyup's Climate Risk Profile

Karrinyup, a suburb in Western Australia, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to bushland increases its vulnerability to bushfires, especially during the hot and dry summer months. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense bushfire seasons.

Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of Karrinyup residents, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these risks, making some areas of the suburb significantly hotter than others.

As a coastal suburb, Karrinyup is also vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards can threaten infrastructure, property, and natural ecosystems along the coastline. Increased storm surges can also lead to coastal flooding and damage.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow the pace of climate change, while adaptation measures focus on building resilience to the impacts that are already occurring and are projected to worsen in the future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES · DPaW · City of Stirling

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Karrinyup?

Karrinyup faces risks from bushfires, heatwaves, coastal erosion, and flooding, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How is the City of Stirling addressing climate change?

The City of Stirling has implemented various initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including promoting sustainable transportation, improving energy efficiency, and protecting coastal areas.

What can residents do to prepare for bushfires?

Residents can prepare for bushfires by maintaining firebreaks, clearing flammable vegetation around their homes, and having a bushfire survival plan.

How can I protect my home from flooding?

You can protect your home from flooding by ensuring that your property is properly drained, installing flood barriers, and having flood insurance.

What resources are available to help me cope with heatwaves?

The Department of Health provides information and resources on how to stay safe during heatwaves, including tips on staying hydrated, finding cooling centers, and recognizing the symptoms of heatstroke.

Is Karrinyup a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While Karrinyup is a desirable suburb, potential investors should carefully consider the climate risks and take steps to mitigate their exposure, such as purchasing insurance and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections