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Climate Risk Profile: Lake Grace, WA

Lake Grace, Western Australia· Lake Grace· 6353
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Lake Grace faces moderate risks from flooding and high risks from bushfires and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly bushfire and heatwave events. Residents should prepare for hotter, drier conditions and increased fire danger.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.5
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.5/10

Lake Grace experiences high temperatures during summer, leading to heat stress risks for vulnerable populations. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.2

Data source

flood Risk

4.5/10

Lake Grace faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and localized waterlogging. The flat terrain contributes to slower drainage.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rainfall intensity
  • ·Land use
  • ·Drainage capacity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Lake Grace is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

6.0/10

Lake Grace has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding dry vegetation and hot, dry summers. Grassfires are a significant concern.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Temperature
  • ·Fuel load
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

6.7

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Grace
Elevation Range
280-300m
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near Lake Grace

Localized flooding can occur after heavy rainfall events, particularly in low-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to town
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
34.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are common during summer, with temperatures often exceeding 40°C.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Lake Grace threatened properties and caused damage to farmland.

Source
2010
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Lake Grace.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Lake Grace experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2023
droughtModerate

Prolonged dry conditions impacted agricultural production in the Lake Grace region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood4.54.7(+0.2)4.9(+0.4)
bushfire6.06.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)
heat5.56.1(+0.6)6.5(+1.0)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Lake Grace is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, along with an increased risk of bushfires. Rainfall patterns may become more erratic, leading to both droughts and localized flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and developing evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Water Conservation

Near-term

Promote water-efficient practices in agriculture and households to address water scarcity.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure improvements to enhance drainage and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Support Diversification of Agriculture

Long-term

Encourage farmers to adopt climate-resilient crops and farming practices.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Lake Grace's Climate Risk Profile

Lake Grace, located in the Wheatbelt region of Western Australia, is vulnerable to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are increasing temperatures, prolonged droughts, and heightened bushfire risk. The region's agricultural economy is particularly susceptible to these changes.

Flooding can occur due to intense rainfall events, overwhelming local drainage systems. While not a frequent occurrence, the flat terrain around Lake Grace increases the risk of waterlogging and localized flooding.

Bushfire risk is a significant concern, especially during the hot, dry summer months. The surrounding vegetation provides ample fuel, and strong winds can quickly spread fires, threatening properties and lives.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. The increasing temperatures also impact agricultural productivity and water resources.

While Lake Grace is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, can still affect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

Shire of Lake Grace

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Lake Grace?

The main risks are increasing temperatures, prolonged droughts, and heightened bushfire risk. Localized flooding can also occur after heavy rainfall.

How will climate change affect agriculture in Lake Grace?

Climate change is expected to reduce agricultural productivity due to water scarcity, heat stress, and increased pest and disease pressure. Farmers may need to adapt by adopting climate-resilient crops and farming practices.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Lake Grace?

You can prepare by clearing vegetation around your property, developing a bushfire survival plan, and ensuring you have adequate insurance coverage. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.

How can I conserve water in Lake Grace?

You can conserve water by using water-efficient appliances, fixing leaks, and reducing outdoor water use. Consider installing rainwater tanks and using greywater for irrigation.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Lake Grace?

You can find information about emergency services on the Emergency WA website or by contacting the Shire of Lake Grace.

Is Lake Grace likely to experience more heatwaves in the future?

Yes, climate projections indicate that Lake Grace will experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. It is important to take precautions to protect yourself and vulnerable individuals during heatwaves.

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