Climate Risk in Mandurah, Western Australia

Mandurah, Western Australia· City of Mandurah· 6210
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Mandurah faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to heatwaves and coastal inundation. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mandurah

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mandurah faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to the Peel-Harvey Estuary. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity, causing inundation of low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
stable

Bushfire

42/100

Bushfire risk in Mandurah is moderate, with areas of bushland surrounding residential zones. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can create conditions conducive to bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

71/100

Mandurah experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events pose a threat to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

54/100

Coastal erosion and inundation are moderate risks for Mandurah, given its extensive coastline and low-lying areas. Sea level rise and storm surges can exacerbate these risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mandurah

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Mandurah experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events pose a threat to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.8

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mandurah faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to the Peel-Harvey Estuary. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity, causing inundation of low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

54/100

Coastal erosion and inundation are moderate risks for Mandurah, given its extensive coastline and low-lying areas. Sea level rise and storm surges can exacerbate these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.2

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Bushfire risk in Mandurah is moderate, with areas of bushland surrounding residential zones. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can create conditions conducive to bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase in areas at high risk of flooding, bushfires, and coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Properties in areas at high risk of climate-related hazards may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion and inundation.
  • 3.Inquire about the property's insurance history and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider the property's energy efficiency and potential for renewable energy generation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Peel-Harvey Estuary
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Floodplain

Several areas in Mandurah are prone to flash flooding during heavy rainfall events. The City of Mandurah maintains flood maps and provides information to residents on how to prepare for floods.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
0-500 meters
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Many properties in Mandurah are located in or near bushfire-prone areas. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce the risk of bushfires and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Mandurah experiences several heatwave events each summer, with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius. The City of Mandurah provides cooling centers and advice to residents on how to stay safe during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2017
stormModerate

A severe storm caused widespread damage in Mandurah, including flooding, power outages, and fallen trees.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Mandurah, particularly in low-lying areas near the Peel-Harvey Estuary.

Source
2007
bushfireModerate

A bushfire threatened homes in the southern suburbs of Mandurah, requiring evacuations and property protection measures.

Source
2010
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on emergency services in Mandurah.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire424.3(+0.1)4.5(+0.3)
heat717.9(+0.8)8.6(+1.5)
coastal545.8(+0.4)6.3(+0.9)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Mandurah is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, while coastal inundation and flooding risks will also increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading stormwater drainage infrastructure to improve its capacity to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Near-term

Construct seawalls, groynes, and other coastal protection measures to reduce the impact of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal areas.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events. This should include establishing cooling centers, providing public education, and coordinating emergency response efforts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce the risk of bushfires, such as clearing vegetation around properties, conducting controlled burns, and providing community education on bushfire safety.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation through education programs, incentives, and water restrictions to reduce demand on water resources during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mandurah's Climate Risk Profile

Mandurah, a coastal city in Western Australia, is vulnerable to a range of climate-related hazards. Its low-lying geography and proximity to the coast make it susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion. Rising sea levels and more intense storm surges are expected to increase the frequency and severity of coastal inundation events.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly in areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds create conditions conducive to bushfires, which can threaten lives and property. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have a plan in place in case of an emergency.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Mandurah, posing a significant health risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. It is important to stay hydrated, seek shelter in air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity during heatwaves.

The City of Mandurah is taking steps to address climate change and mitigate its impacts. These include investing in flood mitigation infrastructure, implementing bushfire management strategies, and promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy. However, further action is needed to protect the community from the growing risks of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES · City of Mandurah

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mandurah?

Mandurah faces significant risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change. Rising sea levels, increased rainfall intensity, and more frequent extreme heat events are all expected to exacerbate these risks.

How is the City of Mandurah addressing climate change?

The City of Mandurah is taking steps to address climate change by investing in flood mitigation infrastructure, implementing bushfire management strategies, and promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy. They also have a climate strategy in place.

What can I do to prepare for climate change in Mandurah?

You can prepare for climate change by taking steps to reduce your risk of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. This includes maintaining your property, having a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about weather warnings. You can also reduce your carbon footprint by conserving energy and water.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Mandurah?

You can find information about flood risks in Mandurah on the City of Mandurah website, including flood maps and advice on how to prepare for floods. The Department of Water and Environmental Regulation also provides information on flood risks in Western Australia.

How will climate change affect property values in Mandurah?

Properties in areas at high risk of climate-related hazards, such as flooding and coastal erosion, may experience a decrease in value. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase in these areas. It is important to consider these risks when buying or selling property in Mandurah.

What is the urban heat island effect and how does it affect Mandurah?

The urban heat island effect is when urban areas experience higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas due to human activities and infrastructure. In Mandurah, this can exacerbate the impact of heatwaves, making it even hotter in built-up areas. Planting trees and using reflective building materials can help mitigate this effect.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections