Climate Risk in Melville, Western Australia

Melville, Western Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Melville faces increasing risks from heatwaves and coastal hazards due to climate change. Flooding is also a concern, particularly from the Swan River. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Melville

increasing

Flood

45/100

Melville faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from riverine sources and intense rainfall events. The Swan River poses a potential flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk in Melville is relatively low due to its urbanized nature and distance from large bushland areas. However, parks and reserves can still pose a localized risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Increased temperatures
increasing

Heat

70/100

Melville is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

63/100

Located near the Swan River and the coast, Melville is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This could impact infrastructure and property values.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Melville

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Melville is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Melville faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from riverine sources and intense rainfall events. The Swan River poses a potential flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

63/100

Located near the Swan River and the coast, Melville is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This could impact infrastructure and property values.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk in Melville is relatively low due to its urbanized nature and distance from large bushland areas. However, parks and reserves can still pose a localized risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone or coastal areas may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance coverage for climate-related events.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Swan River
Elevation Range
5-30 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Swan River are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have occurred along the Swan River, impacting low-lying areas in Melville.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
500m to nearest reserve
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Some areas adjacent to reserves are designated as bushfire prone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Perth metropolitan area.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
2 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas near the Swan River are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Some coastal areas are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Melville, particularly in low-lying areas near the Swan River.

Source
2011
stormModerate

A severe storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to Melville, causing damage to trees and property.

Source
2017
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures in Perth, impacting Melville residents.

Source
2021
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in some parts of Melville due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire303.1(+0.1)3.3(+0.3)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal636.9(+0.6)7.5(+1.2)

By 2030, Melville is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of coastal inundation due to sea level rise. Flooding risk will also increase. Bushfire risk remains relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a comprehensive flood management plan

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce flood risk, such as improving drainage infrastructure and protecting natural floodplains.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning systems

Immediate

Provide timely alerts to residents about impending heatwaves and offer guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen coastal defenses

Long-term

Invest in coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Near-term

Encourage residents and businesses to use water efficiently to reduce pressure on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Melville's Climate Risk Profile

Melville, Western Australia, is projected to experience a range of climate change impacts over the coming decades. Rising temperatures will lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. Changes in rainfall patterns may increase the risk of flooding, particularly in areas near the Swan River.

Sea level rise is another significant threat to Melville, potentially leading to coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying areas. This could impact infrastructure, property values, and the natural environment. The frequency and intensity of storm surges may also increase, exacerbating coastal hazards.

While bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other regions in Western Australia, Melville is not entirely immune. Parks and reserves within the suburb could still be susceptible to bushfires, especially during dry periods. It's important for residents to maintain their properties and be aware of fire safety measures.

Adapting to these climate change impacts will require a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and businesses. This includes implementing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improving infrastructure resilience, and raising community awareness about climate risks. By taking proactive steps, Melville can mitigate the worst effects of climate change and create a more sustainable future.

Individual actions can also make a difference. Residents can reduce their carbon footprint by using public transport, conserving energy, and adopting sustainable lifestyle choices. Preparing for extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods, is also crucial for protecting personal safety and property.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Melville?

Melville faces increasing risks from heatwaves, coastal inundation, and flooding due to climate change. These risks could impact property values, infrastructure, and public health.

How will sea level rise affect Melville?

Sea level rise could lead to coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying areas in Melville, particularly near the Swan River. This could damage infrastructure and property.

What is the City of Melville doing to address climate change?

The City of Melville is developing and implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve infrastructure resilience, and raise community awareness about climate risks. Check their website for details.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Melville?

During heatwaves, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Melville?

You can find information about flood risks on the City of Melville website and the Department of Fire and Emergency Services website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections