Climate Risk in Midland, WA

Midland, Western Australia

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Midland faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, requiring proactive adaptation measures. Bushfire risk is also a concern due to nearby bushland.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.2

Heat

7.1

Coastal

1.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Midland

increasing

Flood

65/100

Midland faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Swan River and local drainage patterns. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Bushfire risk in Midland is moderate, influenced by nearby bushland areas. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could elevate this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

71/100

Midland is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

15/100

Coastal risk is low in Midland due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats to the suburb.

Key drivers:

·Distance from coast

stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Midland

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·River proximity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

15/100

Coastal risk is low in Midland due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats to the suburb.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.5

2050

1.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Bushfire risk in Midland is moderate, influenced by nearby bushland areas. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could elevate this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.
4.Review insurance coverage and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Swan River
Elevation Range: 5-20 meters
Flood Zone: Areas near the Swan River are prone to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 2km of bushland areas
Planning Overlay: DFES Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 20 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2017

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas near the Swan River.

Source

2010

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions.

Source

2005

bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Midland caused minor property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	42	4.5(+0.3)	4.9(+0.7)
heat	71	7.9(+0.8)	8.6(+1.5)
coastal	15	1.5	1.5

By 2030, Midland is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as improved drainage systems and levees.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire risk mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and building codes for bushfire-prone areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Urban Greening

Long-term

Increase urban greening to reduce the urban heat island effect and improve air quality.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Midland's Climate Risk Profile

Midland, located in Western Australia, is projected to experience increasing climate-related challenges in the coming decades. The primary risks stem from increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and rising temperatures leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to the Swan River makes it vulnerable to flooding, and this vulnerability is expected to increase with climate change.

Heatwaves pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of Midland residents, particularly vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these risks, making adaptation measures crucial.

While Midland is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the suburb. Therefore, a comprehensive approach to climate adaptation is essential.

Addressing these challenges requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts should focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while adaptation measures should aim to build resilience to the impacts of climate change. This includes investing in flood defenses, improving urban planning to reduce the urban heat island effect, and implementing public health programs to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Swan

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Midland?

The main climate change risks for Midland are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Midland?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value. Increased insurance premiums may also affect property values.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The City of Swan is developing and implementing climate change strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Midland?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

What should I do if my property is at risk of flooding?

Contact the City of Swan for advice on flood mitigation measures and ensure you have adequate insurance coverage.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Midland, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Midland →

Other Suburbs in Western Australia

Albany58 Applecross52 Armadale—Ascot58 Augusta-Margaret River58 Augusta58 View all Western Australia suburbs →

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Midland's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

Get Your flood Risk Report — A$69

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections