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Climate Risk in Narrogin, WA

Narrogin, Western Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Narrogin faces increasing risks from heatwaves and bushfires due to climate change. Flooding is also a concern, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.2
Bushfire
6.5
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Narrogin

increasing

Flood

42/100

Narrogin faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and river overflow. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·River overflow
increasing

Bushfire

65/100

Narrogin is located in a region with a high bushfire risk due to dry vegetation and hot, dry summers. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Hot and dry summers
increasing

Heat

70/100

Narrogin experiences high temperatures during summer, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

15/100

Narrogin is located inland and has a low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Narrogin

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Narrogin experiences high temperatures during summer, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.2

Data source

flood Risk

42/100

Narrogin faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and river overflow. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·River overflow
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.3

Data source

coastal Risk

15/100

Narrogin is located inland and has a low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.5

2050

1.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

65/100

Narrogin is located in a region with a high bushfire risk due to dry vegetation and hot, dry summers. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Hot and dry summers
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.1

2050

7.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of bushfires and extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about local council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Narrogin Brook
Elevation Range
280-320m
Flood Zone
Areas near Narrogin Brook are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have been recorded in Narrogin, particularly in low-lying areas near the brook.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area surrounding Narrogin is classified as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new developments.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
33.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Narrogin experiences several days above 40°C during summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
170 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Narrogin.

Source
2015
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Narrogin threatened properties and required emergency response.

Source
2019
heatwaveMajor

Narrogin experienced a prolonged heatwave with record-breaking temperatures.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after a period of intense rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood424.5(+0.3)4.8(+0.6)
bushfire657.1(+0.6)7.5(+1.0)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.3(+1.3)
coastal151.51.5

By 2030, Narrogin is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by rising temperatures and an increased risk of bushfires.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve bushfire preparedness

Immediate

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as clearing vegetation around properties and developing community evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance heatwave resilience

Near-term

Provide cooling centers for vulnerable populations and promote water conservation during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade flood defenses

Long-term

Improve drainage infrastructure and implement flood mitigation measures in low-lying areas.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Near-term

Implement water restrictions and encourage water-efficient practices to address water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Support sustainable agriculture

Long-term

Promote drought-resistant crops and sustainable farming practices to adapt to changing climate conditions.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Narrogin's Climate Risk Profile

Narrogin is located in the Wheatbelt region of Western Australia and is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a heightened risk of bushfires.

Climate change projections indicate that Narrogin will experience hotter and drier conditions in the coming decades. This will likely lead to increased stress on water resources, agriculture, and human health. The risk of bushfires is expected to increase significantly, posing a threat to property and lives.

Flooding is also a potential hazard in Narrogin, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. While the risk is not as high as in some coastal areas, it is important to consider flood mitigation measures to protect homes and businesses.

Due to its inland location, Narrogin is not directly exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion. However, the town may still be indirectly affected by climate change impacts on coastal communities and industries.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

Shire of Narrogin

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Narrogin?

The main climate change risks in Narrogin are increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a heightened risk of bushfires. Flooding is also a potential concern.

How will climate change affect property values in Narrogin?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increasing risk of bushfires and extreme weather events. Insurance premiums may also increase.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The Shire of Narrogin is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to address the risks posed by climate change. These plans include measures to improve bushfire preparedness, enhance heatwave resilience, and promote water conservation.

What can I do to protect my home from bushfires?

You can protect your home from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, installing fire-resistant building materials, and developing a family evacuation plan.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Narrogin?

You can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking shelter in air-conditioned buildings, and checking on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Narrogin?

Information about flood risks in Narrogin can be found on the Shire of Narrogin website and the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation website.

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