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Climate Risk in Onslow, WA

Onslow, Western Australia
High Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Onslow faces significant climate-related risks, particularly from heat, coastal hazards, and flooding. Rising temperatures and sea levels pose a threat to the town's infrastructure and community.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
5.8
Heat
8.5
Coastal
8.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Onslow

increasing

Flood

65/100

Onslow faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and storm surges. The town's low-lying coastal location makes it vulnerable to inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
stable

Bushfire

58/100

The risk of bushfire in Onslow is moderate due to the surrounding arid landscape and vegetation. Hot, dry conditions during the summer months increase the likelihood of fire ignition and spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

85/100

Onslow experiences extreme heat, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures due to climate change are expected to exacerbate heat stress on residents and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

80/100

Onslow is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards, including sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal erosion. The town's proximity to the coast and low elevation increase its exposure to these risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

45/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

40/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

55/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Onslow

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

85/100

Onslow experiences extreme heat, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures due to climate change are expected to exacerbate heat stress on residents and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

9.0

2050

9.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Onslow faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and storm surges. The town's low-lying coastal location makes it vulnerable to inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

80/100

Onslow is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards, including sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal erosion. The town's proximity to the coast and low elevation increase its exposure to these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.2

Data source

bushfire Risk

58/100

The risk of bushfire in Onslow is moderate due to the surrounding arid landscape and vegetation. Hot, dry conditions during the summer months increase the likelihood of fire ignition and spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of climate-related disasters.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas may experience a decrease in value due to the risk of flooding and coastal erosion.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of rising insurance premiums.
  • 4.Evaluate the property's energy efficiency and cooling needs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Ashburton River
Elevation Range
0-10m
Flood Zone
Coastal Floodplain

Onslow is located on a coastal floodplain, making it susceptible to flooding from both riverine and coastal sources.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area surrounding Onslow is classified as a bushfire-prone area due to the presence of flammable vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
38.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
15 days

Onslow experiences extreme heat during the summer months, with average maximum temperatures in January exceeding 38°C.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2018
stormModerate

Tropical Cyclone Joyce caused heavy rainfall and flooding in Onslow.

Source
2015
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Onslow, disrupting transportation and damaging infrastructure.

Source
2010
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave affected Onslow, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several consecutive days.

Source
2006
stormModerate

Tropical Cyclone Clare caused significant damage to infrastructure in Onslow.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.3(+0.8)
bushfire586.0(+0.2)6.2(+0.4)
heat859.3(+0.8)10.0(+1.5)
coastal808.7(+0.7)9.3(+1.3)

By 2030, Onslow is projected to experience a notable increase in heat-related risks, with a moderate rise in coastal and flood hazards under a high emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Coastal Defenses

Immediate

Invest in seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surge.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improve Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Develop and implement heatwave early warning systems and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Flood Management

Near-term

Improve drainage infrastructure and implement flood-resistant building codes.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Bushfire Resilience

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as controlled burns and vegetation management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation practices to reduce water stress during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Onslow's Climate Risk Profile

Onslow, located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The town's coastal location and arid climate make it particularly susceptible to rising sea levels, extreme heat, and flooding.

Rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate heat stress on residents, particularly during the summer months. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase, posing a risk to public health and infrastructure. Coastal hazards, including sea level rise and storm surge, threaten to inundate low-lying areas and damage coastal infrastructure.

Flooding from heavy rainfall events and storm surges is also a concern for Onslow. The town's low elevation and proximity to waterways increase its vulnerability to inundation. Changes in rainfall patterns and increased storm intensity are expected to exacerbate flood risk in the future.

Addressing these climate risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Investing in resilient infrastructure, implementing effective emergency management plans, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are crucial steps to protect Onslow and its community from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

Shire of Ashburton

Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Onslow?

Onslow is primarily at risk from rising sea levels, extreme heat, and flooding due to its coastal location and arid climate.

How will rising sea levels affect Onslow?

Rising sea levels could inundate low-lying areas, damage coastal infrastructure, and increase the risk of storm surge.

What measures are being taken to protect Onslow from flooding?

The Shire of Ashburton is working to improve drainage infrastructure and implement flood-resistant building codes.

How can residents prepare for heatwaves in Onslow?

Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day.

What is the long-term outlook for Onslow's climate?

The long-term outlook suggests that Onslow will experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, and increased flood risk.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Onslow?

You can find more information on the Shire of Ashburton website, the Department of Fire and Emergency Services website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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