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Climate Risk Assessment: Palmyra, WA

Palmyra, Western Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Palmyra faces moderate climate risks, particularly from heatwaves and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased temperatures are key concerns. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.5
Coastal
7.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Palmyra

increasing

Flood

45/100

Palmyra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The Swan River is nearby, which could contribute to flooding during extreme weather.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff
stable

Bushfire

30/100

The bushfire risk in Palmyra is relatively low due to its urban location. However, proximity to parks and reserves means there's still a potential risk, especially during dry periods.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation in nearby reserves
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Heat

65/100

Palmyra is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

70/100

Palmyra's coastal proximity makes it vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This could impact infrastructure and property values in the long term.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Palmyra

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

65/100

Palmyra is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Palmyra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The Swan River is nearby, which could contribute to flooding during extreme weather.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff
  • ·Sea level rise impacting drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

70/100

Palmyra's coastal proximity makes it vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This could impact infrastructure and property values in the long term.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The bushfire risk in Palmyra is relatively low due to its urban location. However, proximity to parks and reserves means there's still a potential risk, especially during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation in nearby reserves
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties closer to the coast may experience price adjustments due to sea level rise concerns.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood risk maps.
  • 2.Assess coastal erosion vulnerability.
  • 3.Inquire about council climate adaptation plans.
  • 4.Evaluate energy efficiency of the property.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Swan River
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Potentially subject to inundation during extreme rainfall events.

The suburb's drainage infrastructure may be insufficient to handle increased rainfall intensity.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Approximately 2km to nearby reserves.
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area
No

While not officially designated, vigilance is advised during peak fire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The urban environment contributes to the urban heat island effect.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
2.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Potentially exposed to sea level rise impacts by 2050.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along the Swan River foreshore.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Palmyra.

Source
2011
stormMinor

A severe storm caused minor damage to property and infrastructure.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions.

Source
2021
floodMinor

Flash flooding occurred after a period of intense rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire303.1(+0.1)3.2(+0.2)
heat657.2(+0.7)8.0(+1.5)
coastal707.4(+0.4)8.0(+1.0)

By 2030, Palmyra is projected to experience a noticeable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity. Coastal erosion may become more pronounced, and flooding risks will slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Improve stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flooding risks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Invest in coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage water conservation practices to reduce water demand and improve drought resilience.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Palmyra's Climate Risk Profile

Palmyra, Western Australia, is a suburb that will be increasingly affected by climate change. The primary risks include rising temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves, and the potential for coastal inundation due to sea level rise. Changes in rainfall patterns may also exacerbate flooding risks.

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose a significant threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. Residents should take precautions to stay cool during hot weather and ensure they have access to adequate cooling and hydration.

Sea level rise is another major concern for Palmyra. Coastal erosion and inundation could impact properties and infrastructure near the coast. Long-term planning is needed to mitigate these risks and protect coastal assets.

While bushfire risk is relatively low, it's important to maintain awareness and preparedness, especially during dry periods. Residents should clear vegetation around their homes and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

Overall, Palmyra needs to adapt to the changing climate to protect its residents, infrastructure, and environment. This requires a combination of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation strategies to manage the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Fremantle

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Palmyra?

The main risks include increased heatwaves, sea level rise, and potential flooding.

How will sea level rise affect Palmyra?

Sea level rise could lead to coastal erosion and inundation, impacting properties and infrastructure near the coast.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The City of Fremantle is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Palmyra?

Stay hydrated, stay cool, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Palmyra?

Visit the City of Fremantle website or the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation website for more information.

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