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Climate Risk in Roleystone, Western Australia

Roleystone, Western Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Roleystone faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, and a high risk of bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of rainfall events and the frequency of heatwaves. Residents should prepare for potential impacts and take steps to mitigate their exposure.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Roleystone

increasing

Flood

40/100

Roleystone faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Canning River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, impacting properties near waterways.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff
stable

Bushfire

70/100

Roleystone has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to extensive bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds create ideal conditions for bushfires. Many properties are located in or near bushfire-prone areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry summers
  • ·Accumulation of flammable vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Roleystone experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. This can impact vulnerable populations and increase energy demand for cooling.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Roleystone has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coast. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Roleystone

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Roleystone experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. This can impact vulnerable populations and increase energy demand for cooling.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Roleystone faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Canning River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, impacting properties near waterways.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Roleystone has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coast. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Roleystone has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to extensive bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds create ideal conditions for bushfires. Many properties are located in or near bushfire-prone areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry summers
  • ·Accumulation of flammable vegetation
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage.
  • 4.Prepare a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Canning River
Elevation Range
100-300m
Flood Zone
Areas near Canning River and creeks

Historical flood events have impacted properties along the Canning River.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to extensive bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Many properties are located within designated bushfire prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in recent years.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Canning River, impacting some properties in Roleystone.

Source
2011
bushfireMajor

A significant bushfire threatened properties in Roleystone, requiring evacuations and property protection efforts.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in high temperatures and increased demand for emergency services.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall, causing minor disruptions.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire707.07.0
heat505.5(+0.5)6.4(+1.4)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Roleystone is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood risk and more frequent heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and firebreaks, to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct community education programs to raise awareness about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Roleystone's Climate Risk Profile

Roleystone, Western Australia, is a suburb with unique environmental characteristics that contribute to its climate risk profile. The suburb's location near the Canning River and surrounding bushland creates vulnerabilities to flooding and bushfires.

Flooding is a concern due to the potential for intense rainfall events to overwhelm local drainage systems. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk. Properties located near the river and creeks are particularly vulnerable.

Bushfire risk is high due to the proximity of extensive bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds create ideal conditions for bushfires. The risk is further amplified by the accumulation of flammable vegetation in and around residential areas. Residents need to be vigilant and prepared during the bushfire season.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Rising temperatures can also increase energy demand for cooling, placing strain on the electricity grid.

While coastal risks are minimal due to Roleystone's inland location, the suburb is still indirectly affected by broader climate change impacts. Changes in rainfall patterns and temperature can affect water resources and agricultural productivity in the region.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Armadale

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Roleystone?

The main climate risks in Roleystone are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property by clearing vegetation, maintaining firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Roleystone?

You can find information about flood risks on the City of Armadale website and the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation website.

Is climate change going to affect property values in Roleystone?

Climate change may affect property values in Roleystone, particularly in areas that are highly vulnerable to flooding or bushfires.

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