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Climate Risk Assessment for Scarborough, Western Australia

Scarborough, Western Australia· City of Stirling· 6019
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Scarborough faces moderate climate risks, primarily from heatwaves, coastal erosion, and flooding. Rising temperatures and sea levels are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
3.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
6.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Scarborough

increasing

Flood

65/100

Scarborough faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to coastal areas and low-lying regions. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

32/100

Bushfire risk in Scarborough is relatively low due to its urban development and coastal location, which limits extensive vegetation. However, nearby reserves pose a potential threat.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Dry vegetation
increasing

Heat

71/100

Scarborough experiences a high heat risk, particularly during summer months. Urban areas retain heat, leading to elevated temperatures and potential heat stress for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

64/100

Coastal erosion and inundation pose a moderate risk to Scarborough due to its exposed coastline. Sea level rise and storm surges can exacerbate these issues, impacting infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Scarborough

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Scarborough experiences a high heat risk, particularly during summer months. Urban areas retain heat, leading to elevated temperatures and potential heat stress for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Rising average temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.8

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Scarborough faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to coastal areas and low-lying regions. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

64/100

Coastal erosion and inundation pose a moderate risk to Scarborough due to its exposed coastline. Sea level rise and storm surges can exacerbate these issues, impacting infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.6

Data source

bushfire Risk

32/100

Bushfire risk in Scarborough is relatively low due to its urban development and coastal location, which limits extensive vegetation. However, nearby reserves pose a potential threat.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

3.5

2050

3.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums due to coastal and flood risks.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk coastal zones.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections for the area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Indian Ocean
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Several areas within Scarborough are prone to waterlogging during heavy rainfall events. Drainage improvements are ongoing.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
1-3 km
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas adjacent to Trigg Bushland Reserve are considered at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The urban heat island effect is noticeable in Scarborough, particularly in densely built areas.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2010
stormModerate

Severe storm caused coastal erosion and damage to beachfront properties.

Source
2011
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall led to localized flooding in low-lying areas of Scarborough.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions for heat-related illnesses.

Source
2021
coastalMinor

High tides and storm surge caused minor coastal inundation along the Scarborough foreshore.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire323.3(+0.1)3.4(+0.2)
heat717.8(+0.7)8.6(+1.5)
coastal646.8(+0.4)7.3(+0.9)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Scarborough is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, while coastal erosion and flooding risks will also increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage capacity to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of localized flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Near-term

Construct seawalls, groynes, and other coastal defenses to protect against erosion and storm surge.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers, provide public education on heat safety, and implement measures to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance bushfire preparedness

Long-term

Conduct controlled burns, clear vegetation around properties, and educate residents on bushfire safety.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage water-wise gardening, install rainwater tanks, and implement water restrictions during dry periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Scarborough's Climate Risk Profile

Scarborough, a coastal suburb of Perth, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include heatwaves, coastal erosion, flooding, and bushfire. Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a significant threat to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Coastal erosion is another major concern for Scarborough. Sea level rise and increased storm surge intensity are expected to accelerate erosion rates, threatening coastal infrastructure and property. The suburb's proximity to the ocean makes it particularly susceptible to these impacts.

Flooding is also a risk, especially during periods of heavy rainfall. The existing drainage infrastructure may not be adequate to handle the increased intensity of rainfall events predicted under climate change scenarios. This can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding capacity and causing localized flooding.

While bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other parts of Western Australia, nearby bushland areas still pose a potential threat. Drier conditions and higher temperatures can increase the risk of bushfires spreading into the suburb. Proactive measures are needed to mitigate these risks and protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES · City of Stirling

Local Government Resources

City of Stirling

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Scarborough?

The main climate change risks in Scarborough include heatwaves, coastal erosion, flooding, and bushfire. Rising temperatures and sea levels are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future.

How will climate change affect property values in Scarborough?

Climate change may lead to decreased property values in high-risk coastal zones due to increased erosion and flooding risks. Properties in areas less vulnerable to these impacts may retain their value better.

What is the City of Stirling doing to address climate change?

The City of Stirling has implemented various initiatives to address climate change, including upgrading stormwater drainage infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and developing a heatwave management plan. More information can be found on their website.

How can I prepare my home for heatwaves in Scarborough?

To prepare your home for heatwaves, ensure you have adequate insulation, install air conditioning or fans, and create shaded outdoor areas. Stay hydrated and avoid strenuous activities during the hottest parts of the day.

What should I do during a coastal storm in Scarborough?

During a coastal storm, stay away from the beach and coastal areas. Secure loose objects around your property and be prepared for potential power outages. Follow the advice of emergency services and evacuate if necessary.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Scarborough?

Information about flood risks in Scarborough can be found on the City of Stirling website, including flood maps and risk assessments. You can also contact the council directly for more information.

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