Climate Risk in Shoalwater, Western Australia

Shoalwater, Western Australia· City of Rockingham· 6169
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Shoalwater faces a medium level of climate risk, with notable concerns related to bushfire and coastal hazards. Rising temperatures and sea levels are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Shoalwater

increasing

Flood

40/100

Shoalwater faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and coastal inundation. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

60/100

Bushfire risk in Shoalwater is relatively high due to the proximity of bushland areas. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of fire.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Shoalwater experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Shoalwater is exposed to coastal risks, including sea level rise and coastal erosion, which could impact infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Shoalwater

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Shoalwater experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Shoalwater faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and coastal inundation. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Shoalwater is exposed to coastal risks, including sea level rise and coastal erosion, which could impact infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Bushfire risk in Shoalwater is relatively high due to the proximity of bushland areas. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of fire.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (A1B)

2030

6.0

2050

6.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price depreciation.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion and sea level rise.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage for climate-related events.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Shoalwater Bay
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal inundation zone

Low-lying areas near the coast are most vulnerable to flooding during storm surges.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland require adequate firebreaks and defensible space.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents and those with chronic health conditions are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate exposure to sea level rise
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along the coastline

Historical Climate Events

2010
stormModerate

Severe storm caused minor flooding and power outages in Shoalwater.

Source
2011
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall led to localized flooding in low-lying areas of Shoalwater.

Source
2015
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C impacted Shoalwater.

Source
2017
bushfireMinor

Bushfire near Shoalwater caused smoke haze and required evacuation of some residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)4.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
bushfire606.1(+0.1)6.2(+0.2)6.2(+0.2)6.4(+0.4)
heat505.4(+0.4)5.6(+0.6)5.5(+0.5)5.9(+0.9)
coastal606.5(+0.5)6.9(+0.9)6.7(+0.7)7.5(+1.5)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Shoalwater is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with coastal hazards and heat stress being the most significant concerns.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls, dune restoration, and beach nourishment to reduce erosion and inundation risks.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Immediate

Reduce bushfire risk by maintaining firebreaks, clearing vegetation around properties, and implementing community fire safety programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop and implement heatwave preparedness plans, including public awareness campaigns, cooling centers, and support for vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Flood Management

Long-term

Improve drainage infrastructure, implement flood warning systems, and develop evacuation plans for low-lying areas.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Sustainable Urban Planning

Long-term

Incorporate climate change considerations into urban planning and development decisions, including building codes, land use zoning, and infrastructure design.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Shoalwater's Climate Risk Profile

Shoalwater, located in Western Australia, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's coastal location makes it particularly susceptible to sea level rise and coastal erosion, threatening infrastructure and property.

Bushfire risk is also a significant concern, with dry vegetation and hot summers creating favorable conditions for fires. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and maintain their properties accordingly.

Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a health risk, especially to vulnerable populations. It's important to stay informed about heatwave warnings and take precautions to stay cool and hydrated.

Flooding, driven by increased rainfall intensity and storm surges, can also impact Shoalwater. Low-lying areas are particularly at risk, and residents should be prepared for potential flooding events.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of individual preparedness, community resilience, and government action. By working together, Shoalwater can adapt to the changing climate and protect its residents and assets.

Mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are also crucial to slowing down the pace of climate change and minimizing its long-term impacts on Shoalwater.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES · DPaW · City of Rockingham

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Shoalwater?

Shoalwater is primarily at risk from sea level rise, coastal erosion, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Shoalwater?

Sea level rise could lead to increased coastal inundation, erosion of beaches and foreshores, and damage to coastal infrastructure and properties.

What can I do to protect my property from bushfires?

You can protect your property by maintaining firebreaks, clearing vegetation around your home, and having a bushfire survival plan.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Shoalwater?

During heatwaves, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

What is the City of Rockingham doing to address climate change?

The City of Rockingham is developing and implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving energy efficiency, and protecting coastal areas.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Shoalwater?

You can find more information on the City of Rockingham website, the Department of Fire and Emergency Services website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections