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Climate Risk Assessment for Subiaco, WA

Subiaco, Western Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Subiaco faces moderate climate risks, primarily related to heatwaves and flooding. While not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the suburb may experience indirect impacts. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense heat events and potential disruptions from flooding.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Subiaco

increasing

Flood

45/100

Subiaco faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The area's relatively flat terrain and existing drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Subiaco is relatively low due to its urbanized environment and distance from large areas of dense vegetation. However, parks and reserves in and around the suburb could pose a localized risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to parks and reserves
  • ·Dry vegetation
increasing

Heat

70/100

Subiaco is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. The urban heat island effect exacerbates this risk, leading to higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

63/100

Subiaco is located inland and does not face direct coastal inundation risks. However, it may experience indirect impacts from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges affecting nearby coastal communities and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Subiaco

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Subiaco is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. The urban heat island effect exacerbates this risk, leading to higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Subiaco faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The area's relatively flat terrain and existing drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

63/100

Subiaco is located inland and does not face direct coastal inundation risks. However, it may experience indirect impacts from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges affecting nearby coastal communities and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Subiaco is relatively low due to its urbanized environment and distance from large areas of dense vegetation. However, parks and reserves in and around the suburb could pose a localized risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to parks and reserves
  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in areas prone to flooding or heat stress may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heat stress.
  • 3.Consider the potential impacts of climate change on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Evaluate the property's energy efficiency.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Swan River
Elevation Range
15-30 meters
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall, particularly in low-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of Bold Park
Planning Overlay
Not designated as a high-risk bushfire area
Bushfire Prone Area
No

The risk of bushfire is relatively low due to the urbanized environment.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The urban heat island effect can increase temperatures by several degrees compared to surrounding areas.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Indirectly exposed through regional impacts
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Subiaco, disrupting traffic and damaging property.

Source
2011
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased demand for electricity and put strain on the power grid.

Source
2017
stormMinor

A severe storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to Subiaco, causing minor damage to trees and property.

Source
2022
heatwaveModerate

Record high temperatures were recorded in Perth, with Subiaco experiencing several days above 40 degrees Celsius.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood454.7(+0.2)4.9(+0.4)4.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire303.1(+0.1)3.2(+0.2)3.2(+0.2)3.4(+0.4)
heat707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)7.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal636.5(+0.2)6.7(+0.4)6.6(+0.3)6.9(+0.6)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Subiaco is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Urban Green Spaces

Near-term

Increase tree canopy cover and create more green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage systems to better manage stormwater runoff and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote Energy Efficiency

Immediate

Encourage residents and businesses to adopt energy-efficient practices and technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lower energy bills.

Est. cost: Low to Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing outreach services.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Implement educational programs to raise awareness about climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Subiaco's Climate Risk Profile

Subiaco, an inner-western suburb of Perth, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The most significant risks include rising temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves, and potential for flooding due to intense rainfall events.

The urban heat island effect is a major concern for Subiaco. Densely built-up areas retain more heat, leading to higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas. This can exacerbate the health impacts of heatwaves, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Flooding is another potential risk for Subiaco. While the suburb is not located directly on a major river, intense rainfall events can overwhelm drainage systems, leading to localized flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these rainfall events, further increasing the risk of flooding.

Although Subiaco is not directly on the coast, it may experience indirect impacts from coastal hazards. Sea level rise and storm surges could affect nearby coastal communities and infrastructure, potentially disrupting transportation and supply chains. It is important for Subiaco to consider these indirect impacts when planning for climate change.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach. This includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to the impacts of climate change, and build community resilience. Residents, businesses, and local government all have a role to play in creating a more climate-resilient Subiaco.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES WA · DWER WA

Local Government Resources

City of Subiaco

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Subiaco?

The main climate change risks for Subiaco include increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, potential for flooding due to intense rainfall events, and indirect impacts from coastal hazards.

How will climate change affect property values in Subiaco?

Properties in areas prone to flooding or heat stress may experience a decrease in value. It is important to assess a property's vulnerability to these risks before purchasing.

What is the urban heat island effect and how does it affect Subiaco?

The urban heat island effect is the phenomenon where urban areas are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas due to the concentration of buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. This can exacerbate the health impacts of heatwaves in Subiaco.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Subiaco?

To prepare for heatwaves, stay hydrated, seek shade, use air conditioning or fans, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How is the City of Subiaco addressing climate change?

The City of Subiaco is developing and implementing climate change strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to the impacts of climate change, and build community resilience. Check the council website for more information.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Subiaco?

Information about flood risks in Subiaco can be found on the City of Subiaco website and the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation website.

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