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Climate Risk in Warnbro, WA

Warnbro, Western Australia
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Warnbro faces increasing climate risks, particularly from heatwaves and bushfires. Coastal flooding and erosion are also concerns. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Warnbro

increasing

Flood

40/100

Warnbro faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and coastal inundation. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Warnbro has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland and prevailing dry conditions during summer. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Warnbro is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Warnbro faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Warnbro

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Warnbro is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

9.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Warnbro faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and coastal inundation. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

6.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Warnbro faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

7.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Warnbro has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland and prevailing dry conditions during summer. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme weather events

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise.
  • 4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Warnbro Sound
Elevation Range
0-20m
Flood Zone
Coastal Inundation Zone

Low-lying areas near the coast are most vulnerable to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2010
stormModerate

Severe storm caused coastal erosion and flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2011
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Warnbro.

Source
2015
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C.

Source
2016
bushfireMinor

Bushfire near Warnbro, posing a threat to properties.

Source
2021
heatwaveModerate

Record breaking temperatures during summer heatwave.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood404.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)4.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)6.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
heat707.6(+0.6)8.0(+1.0)7.9(+0.9)8.5(+1.5)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.5(+0.5)5.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Warnbro will experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with heatwaves and bushfires posing the greatest challenges.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a community heatwave plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Implement vegetation management programs and educate residents about bushfire safety.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen coastal defenses

Long-term

Invest in coastal protection measures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Upgrade stormwater drainage

Near-term

Improve stormwater infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Warnbro's Climate Risk Profile

Warnbro is a suburb in Western Australia that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and sea level rise are all contributing to increased risks from heatwaves, bushfires, flooding, and coastal erosion.

The risk of heatwaves is particularly concerning, as Warnbro is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the coming years. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Bushfire risk is also high in Warnbro, due to its proximity to bushland and the dry conditions that prevail during summer. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to an increased risk of bushfires.

Coastal flooding and erosion are also significant concerns for Warnbro, as sea levels rise and storm intensity increases. These hazards could damage property and infrastructure, and displace residents.

It is important for residents of Warnbro to take steps to prepare for the impacts of climate change. This includes developing emergency plans, investing in home improvements to reduce risk, and advocating for policies that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Rockingham

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Warnbro?

The main climate change risks in Warnbro are heatwaves, bushfires, coastal flooding, and erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the coming years due to rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and sea level rise.

How will climate change affect property values in Warnbro?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions due to the increased risk of flooding, bushfires, and coastal erosion. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Warnbro?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Warnbro?

Clear vegetation around your home, install fire-resistant materials, and develop a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about bushfire warnings and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

What is the City of Rockingham doing to address climate change?

The City of Rockingham is developing a climate strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes investing in renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and strengthening coastal defenses.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Warnbro?

You can find more information about climate change in Warnbro on the City of Rockingham website, the Department of Fire and Emergency Services website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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