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Climate Risk in Wembley Downs, Western Australia

Wembley Downs, Western Australia· City of Stirling· 6019
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Wembley Downs faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, with coastal risks being low. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of these events, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.5
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Wembley Downs

increasing

Flood

45/100

Wembley Downs faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localized drainage issues. Coastal inundation is less of a concern due to its distance from the immediate coastline.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Bushfire risk in Wembley Downs is moderate due to the presence of nearby bushland areas. Increased temperatures and drier conditions are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

55/100

Wembley Downs is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer months.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is low in Wembley Downs due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Wembley Downs

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

55/100

Wembley Downs is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer months.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Wembley Downs faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localized drainage issues. Coastal inundation is less of a concern due to its distance from the immediate coastline.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is low in Wembley Downs due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Bushfire risk in Wembley Downs is moderate due to the presence of nearby bushland areas. Increased temperatures and drier conditions are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Herdsman Lake
Elevation Range
20-40 meters
Flood Zone
Localized areas near drainage lines

The City of Stirling has identified areas within Wembley Downs that are susceptible to localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Bold Park and other reserves
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering or near bushland areas are at higher risk during bushfire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The suburb experiences several days above 35°C during summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
2 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Wembley Downs.

Source
2011
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Bold Park threatened properties in Wembley Downs, but was quickly contained.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

An extended heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions due to heat-related illnesses.

Source
2022
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to trees and power lines in Wembley Downs.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
heat556.1(+0.6)6.7(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Wembley Downs is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood, bushfire, and heatwave risks. Coastal risks remain low.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of localized flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement bushfire management plans for properties near bushland areas, including vegetation management and firebreaks.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Establish Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Create a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Wembley Downs's Climate Risk Profile

Wembley Downs, located in Western Australia, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires due to proximity to bushland, and heatwaves affecting vulnerable populations. Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's distance from the coastline.

Flooding is expected to become more frequent and intense, driven by climate change and urban development that reduces permeable surfaces. This can lead to property damage and disruption of local infrastructure. Bushfire risk is also increasing due to hotter, drier conditions, posing a threat to homes and the environment.

Heatwaves are becoming more common, impacting public health, particularly among the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The local council and community need to implement strategies to mitigate these risks and protect residents.

Adaptation measures are crucial to ensure the long-term resilience of Wembley Downs. These include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing bushfire management plans, and providing support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves. Community awareness and preparedness are also essential to minimize the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Stirling

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Wembley Downs?

The main climate risks include increased flooding due to heavy rainfall, bushfire risk due to proximity to bushland, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How is the City of Stirling addressing climate change?

The City of Stirling has implemented various climate strategies, including improving drainage infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and developing bushfire management plans.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can prepare by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

You can protect your property by maintaining vegetation, creating firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Wembley Downs?

You can find information about flood risks on the City of Stirling website and through the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES).

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