Climate Risk in York, WA

York, Western Australia· 6302
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

York, WA, faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. The suburb's proximity to the Avon River and surrounding bushland makes it particularly vulnerable. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
0.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for York

increasing

Flood

65/100

York is located near the Avon River and its tributaries, making it susceptible to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

York is surrounded by bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires, especially during hot and dry summer months. Climate change is projected to exacerbate bushfire conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

York experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are expected to increase with climate change, posing risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

5/100

York is located inland, so the risk of coastal hazards is very low.

stable

Wind

32/100

Moderate wind risk — winter storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe thunderstorms

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability

increasing

Energy

39/100

Moderate energy costs — cooling demand in summer

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for York

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

York experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are expected to increase with climate change, posing risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

York is located near the Avon River and its tributaries, making it susceptible to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5/100

York is located inland, so the risk of coastal hazards is very low.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

0.5

2050

0.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

York is surrounded by bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires, especially during hot and dry summer months. Climate change is projected to exacerbate bushfire conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider adaptation measures to reduce risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Avon River
Elevation Range
290-350m
Flood Zone
Likely

The Avon River has a history of flooding in York, with several recorded events over the years.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

York is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to the extensive bushland surrounding the town.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
35°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

York experiences several days above 40°C during summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
97 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

The Avon River flooded, causing damage to properties and infrastructure in York.

Source
2015
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near York threatened homes and required emergency response efforts.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

York experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred along the Avon River after heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)
heat505.2(+0.2)5.4(+0.4)
coastal50.50.5

By 2030, York is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and bushfire risks due to changing rainfall patterns and drier conditions.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Management

Immediate

Implement bushfire prevention measures, including controlled burns and vegetation management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies to build community resilience.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About York's Climate Risk Profile

York is a historic town in Western Australia, located in the Avon Valley. The region is known for its agricultural landscapes and natural beauty. However, climate change poses significant challenges to the area.

Flooding is a major concern for York, as the town is situated near the Avon River. Increased rainfall intensity can lead to riverine flooding, impacting homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Bushfires are also a significant threat, with the surrounding bushland creating a high-risk environment during dry seasons. Rising temperatures and drier conditions exacerbate the risk of bushfires.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The local government and community are working to implement adaptation strategies to mitigate these risks.

Addressing climate change impacts in York requires a multi-faceted approach, including improved flood management, bushfire prevention, and heatwave preparedness. Community engagement and education are crucial to building resilience and ensuring the safety and well-being of residents.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in York?

The main climate change risks in York include increased flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Shire of York is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate climate risks and build community resilience, including flood management and bushfire prevention measures.

What can residents do to prepare for extreme weather events?

Residents can prepare by developing emergency plans, maintaining their properties to reduce bushfire risk, and staying informed about weather forecasts and warnings.

Are there any financial incentives for climate adaptation measures?

Check with the Shire of York and state government for available grants and incentives for implementing climate adaptation measures on your property.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for York?

You can find climate change projections for York on the CSIRO website and through reports from the Western Australian government.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections