Climate Risk in Manly, ACT

Manly, Australian Capital Territory
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Manly, ACT, faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly

increasing

Flood

65/100

Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Manly has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Manly, ACT, is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Manly, ACT, is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Manly has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate change impacts become more pronounced.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop an emergency plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Molonglo River
Elevation Range
550-600m
Flood Zone
Potentially affected

Some areas near the Molonglo River are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
ACTmapi
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb borders areas designated as bushfire-prone, requiring residents to maintain firebreaks and clear vegetation around their homes.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Manly experiences several days above 35°C each summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
N/A
Erosion Risk
N/A

Historical Climate Events

2018
stormModerate

A severe thunderstorm caused flash flooding and property damage in Manly.

Source
2003
bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread destruction and loss of life in the region.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on emergency services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire424.5(+0.3)4.9(+0.7)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Manly is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement bushfire prevention measures

Immediate

Implement bushfire prevention measures, such as controlled burns and vegetation management, to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Promote water conservation measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires exacerbated by hotter and drier conditions, and heatwaves that pose a threat to public health.

The suburb's proximity to waterways makes it susceptible to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events, which could overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure and lead to property damage.

The surrounding bushland also poses a significant bushfire risk, especially during the summer months. Higher temperatures and lower humidity levels create ideal conditions for bushfires to ignite and spread rapidly. Residents need to be prepared to evacuate their homes at short notice.

Heatwaves are another growing concern, with climate change expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. This can lead to heat stress, dehydration, and other health problems, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including investments in flood mitigation infrastructure, bushfire prevention measures, and public health initiatives to protect residents from heatwaves. Individual households also need to take steps to prepare for extreme weather events, such as developing emergency plans and maintaining their properties to reduce the risk of damage.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Manly?

The main climate change risks in Manly include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

How can I prepare for a flood in Manly?

You can prepare for a flood by checking flood maps, obtaining insurance coverage, and developing an emergency plan.

What should I do during a heatwave in Manly?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, stay indoors, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How is the ACT Government addressing climate change?

The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy, and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Manly?

You can find more information about climate change in Manly on the ACT Government's website and the websites of relevant emergency services.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections