Climate Risk in Manly, ACT
Manly, ACT, faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly
Flood
Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
Manly has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Manly, ACT, is not exposed to coastal risks.
Wind
Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds
Storm
Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms
Social
Moderate social stability — high public sector
Energy
Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
- ·Reduced vegetation cover
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
flood Risk
Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Manly, ACT, is not exposed to coastal risks.
Projections (N/A)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
Manly has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Fuel load
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.7
2050
5.2
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate change impacts become more pronounced.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
- 4.Develop an emergency plan.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Molonglo River
- Elevation Range
- 550-600m
- Flood Zone
- Potentially affected
Some areas near the Molonglo River are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent
- Planning Overlay
- ACTmapi
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The suburb borders areas designated as bushfire-prone, requiring residents to maintain firebreaks and clear vegetation around their homes.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Manly experiences several days above 35°C each summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 150 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- N/A
- Erosion Risk
- N/A
Historical Climate Events
Climate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 65 | 7.0(+0.5) | 7.5(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 42 | 4.5(+0.3) | 4.9(+0.7) |
| heat | 70 | 7.7(+0.7) | 8.5(+1.5) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Manly is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Upgrade drainage infrastructure
Near-termInvest in upgrading drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement bushfire prevention measures
ImmediateImplement bushfire prevention measures, such as controlled burns and vegetation management, to reduce the risk of bushfires.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a heatwave response plan
Near-termDevelop a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termPromote water conservation measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Manly's Climate Risk Profile
Manly, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires exacerbated by hotter and drier conditions, and heatwaves that pose a threat to public health.
The suburb's proximity to waterways makes it susceptible to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events, which could overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure and lead to property damage.
The surrounding bushland also poses a significant bushfire risk, especially during the summer months. Higher temperatures and lower humidity levels create ideal conditions for bushfires to ignite and spread rapidly. Residents need to be prepared to evacuate their homes at short notice.
Heatwaves are another growing concern, with climate change expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. This can lead to heat stress, dehydration, and other health problems, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.
Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including investments in flood mitigation infrastructure, bushfire prevention measures, and public health initiatives to protect residents from heatwaves. Individual households also need to take steps to prepare for extreme weather events, such as developing emergency plans and maintaining their properties to reduce the risk of damage.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government
Local Government Resources
ACT Government
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Manly?
The main climate change risks in Manly include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.
How can I prepare for a flood in Manly?
You can prepare for a flood by checking flood maps, obtaining insurance coverage, and developing an emergency plan.
What should I do during a heatwave in Manly?
During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, stay indoors, and check on vulnerable neighbors.
How is the ACT Government addressing climate change?
The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy, and adapting to the impacts of climate change.
Where can I find more information about climate change in Manly?
You can find more information about climate change in Manly on the ACT Government's website and the websites of relevant emergency services.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Manly, use our analysis tool.
Other Suburbs in Australian Capital Territory
Check Your flood Risk Now
Check Manly's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.
What A$69 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections