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Climate Risk in Bobin, New South Wales

Bobin, New South Wales· MidCoast Council· 2429
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Bobin is a rural suburb in the MidCoast Council region of New South Wales. It faces significant risks from flooding and bushfires, with increasing heatwave risks due to climate change. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
8.0
Bushfire
7.5
Heat
6.5
Coastal
2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Bobin

increasing

Flood

80/100

Bobin faces a high risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Manning River and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can cause the river to overflow, inundating residential and commercial properties.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

75/100

The area surrounding Bobin is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry conditions. The presence of dense vegetation increases the risk of fire ignition and spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

65/100

Bobin experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with the potential for heatwaves. Prolonged periods of extreme heat can pose health risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

20/100

Bobin is located inland and has a low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Bobin

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

65/100

Bobin experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with the potential for heatwaves. Prolonged periods of extreme heat can pose health risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.2

Data source

flood Risk

80/100

Bobin faces a high risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Manning River and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can cause the river to overflow, inundating residential and commercial properties.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.3

2050

8.7

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Bobin is located inland and has a low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

75/100

The area surrounding Bobin is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry conditions. The presence of dense vegetation increases the risk of fire ignition and spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.8

2050

8.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Home insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain quotes for home insurance.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Manning River
Elevation Range
10-30 meters
Flood Zone
Yes

Several properties in Bobin are located within identified flood zones.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Bobin is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to the surrounding vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
35 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

The Manning River flooded, inundating several properties in Bobin.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Bushfires swept through the region, causing significant damage to property and infrastructure.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Manning River to flood again, affecting homes and businesses in Bobin.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Severe flooding impacted Bobin, leading to evacuations and widespread damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood808.3(+0.3)8.6(+0.6)
bushfire757.7(+0.2)8.0(+0.5)
heat656.6(+0.1)6.9(+0.4)
coastal202.02.0

By 2030, Bobin is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense flooding and bushfire events. Heatwave risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Construct levees and drainage systems to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and creating firebreaks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan and provide cooling centers for vulnerable residents.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Infrastructure

Long-term

Ensure that critical infrastructure is resilient to climate change impacts.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Bobin's Climate Risk Profile

Bobin, NSW, is a small community located in the MidCoast Council area. The primary climate-related risks for Bobin are flooding and bushfires. The suburb's proximity to the Manning River makes it vulnerable to riverine flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, with more intense rainfall events leading to increased flood frequency and severity.

Bushfire risk is also a major concern for Bobin. The surrounding landscape consists of bushland and forested areas, which can become highly flammable during hot and dry conditions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region, posing a significant threat to life and property.

Heatwaves are another growing concern for Bobin. As average temperatures rise, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and prolonged periods of extreme heat. This can have serious health impacts, particularly for elderly residents and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

While Bobin is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader MidCoast region is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. These impacts could indirectly affect Bobin through disruptions to infrastructure and supply chains. Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort involving local government, emergency services, and the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · MidCoast Council

Local Government Resources

MidCoast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Bobin?

The main climate change risks for Bobin are increased flooding, more frequent and intense bushfires, and more severe heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Bobin?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Bobin?

MidCoast Council has a climate change strategy that outlines actions to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding in Bobin?

You can take steps to protect your property from flooding, such as installing flood barriers, raising electrical equipment, and improving drainage.

How can I prepare for a bushfire in Bobin?

You can prepare for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, creating a firebreak, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Bobin?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Bobin on the MidCoast Council website, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage website, and the CSIRO website.

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