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Climate Risk Profile: Coalcliff, NSW

Coalcliff, New South Wales· Wollongong· 2508
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Coalcliff is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks. The primary concerns are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves and coastal erosion, which are projected to worsen in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these hazards.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.5
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Coalcliff

increasing

Flood

65/100

Coalcliff has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the coast and waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Coalcliff faces a high risk of bushfires due to its location near bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

45/100

Coalcliff experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Coalcliff is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards can impact infrastructure and property along the coastline.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Coalcliff

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

45/100

Coalcliff experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Coalcliff has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the coast and waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Coalcliff is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards can impact infrastructure and property along the coastline.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Coalcliff faces a high risk of bushfires due to its location near bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Cataract Creek
Elevation Range
0-100m
Flood Zone
Coastal and riverine floodplains

Several properties are located within identified flood zones.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Royal National Park
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

A significant portion of the suburb is designated as bushfire prone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Coastal erosion is an ongoing issue.

Historical Climate Events

2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in Coalcliff, inundating some properties.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Royal National Park threatened Coalcliff, requiring residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source
2013
stormModerate

A severe storm caused coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure in Coalcliff.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased heat stress and health concerns for residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)
heat454.7(+0.2)5.0(+0.5)
coastal505.1(+0.1)5.4(+0.4)

By 2030, Coalcliff is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and bushfire risk due to more extreme weather events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Immediate

Conduct regular fuel reduction burns and maintain firebreaks to reduce the risk of bushfires spreading to residential areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide information to residents on how to stay safe during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect infrastructure and property from erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community awareness programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops and online resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Coalcliff's Climate Risk Profile

Coalcliff is a coastal suburb located in New South Wales, known for its beautiful beaches and natural surroundings. However, the suburb is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Flooding is a significant concern in Coalcliff, with the potential for both flash flooding and riverine flooding during heavy rainfall events. Sea level rise is also expected to exacerbate coastal flooding.

Bushfires pose a serious threat to Coalcliff, particularly during the summer months. The suburb's proximity to bushland increases the risk of fire spreading to residential areas.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Coalcliff, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas.

Coastal erosion is an ongoing issue in Coalcliff, threatening infrastructure and property along the coastline. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity are expected to worsen erosion rates.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Wollongong City Council

Local Government Resources

Wollongong City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Coalcliff?

The main climate change risks in Coalcliff are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures, sea level rise, and more extreme weather events.

How will sea level rise affect Coalcliff?

Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate coastal erosion and increase the risk of coastal flooding in Coalcliff. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Coalcliff?

You can prepare for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, having a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Coalcliff?

You can find information about flood risks in Coalcliff on the Wollongong City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Coalcliff?

Wollongong City Council is implementing a range of measures to address climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure, managing bushfire risks, and developing a heatwave response plan.

Are there any community groups in Coalcliff focused on climate action?

Yes, there are several local community groups focused on environmental sustainability and climate action. Check the Wollongong City Council website for a list of local groups.

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