Climate Risk Profile: Little Pelican, NSW

Little Pelican, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Little Pelican faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly related to heatwaves and flooding. The suburb's coastal location also makes it vulnerable to sea level rise. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Little Pelican

increasing

Flood

60/100

Little Pelican faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Lake Macquarie. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfire in Little Pelican is moderate, given the presence of surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Little Pelican is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

As a coastal suburb, Little Pelican is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This could lead to inundation of low-lying areas and damage to infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Little Pelican

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Little Pelican is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Little Pelican faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Lake Macquarie. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

As a coastal suburb, Little Pelican is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This could lead to inundation of low-lying areas and damage to infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfire in Little Pelican is moderate, given the presence of surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate risks

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider sea level rise projections
  • 4.Evaluate energy efficiency

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Macquarie
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal floodplain

Low-lying areas near the lake are particularly vulnerable to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas at risk of inundation
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk

Historical Climate Events

2007
floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted homes and businesses in the area.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened properties near Little Pelican.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storm caused damage to homes and infrastructure.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.8(+0.8)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal505.4(+0.4)5.7(+0.7)

By 2030, Little Pelican is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with heatwaves and flooding posing the greatest challenges.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal protection measures to reduce the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Promote energy efficiency

Near-term

Encourage residents to adopt energy-efficient practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lower energy bills.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Little Pelican's Climate Risk Profile

Little Pelican, located in New South Wales, is projected to experience a range of climate change impacts over the coming decades. These include more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased rainfall intensity leading to flooding, and rising sea levels threatening coastal areas.

The risk of flooding is a significant concern for Little Pelican, given its proximity to Lake Macquarie and low-lying topography. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, which could overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure and lead to more frequent and severe flooding events. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take steps to protect their properties.

Heatwaves are also projected to become more common and intense in Little Pelican. This poses a particular risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. It is important to stay hydrated, seek out air-conditioned spaces, and check on neighbors during heatwaves.

Sea level rise is another significant threat to Little Pelican. As sea levels rise, low-lying coastal areas could become inundated, and coastal erosion could damage infrastructure and property. Long-term planning is needed to address the impacts of sea level rise.

Overall, Little Pelican faces a range of climate change challenges. By taking proactive steps to adapt to these changes, residents can help to protect their community and ensure a sustainable future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Rural Fire Service · Lake Macquarie City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Little Pelican?

The main climate change risks in Little Pelican are heatwaves, flooding, and sea level rise.

How will climate change affect property values in Little Pelican?

Climate change could lead to decreased property values in high-risk areas, such as those prone to flooding or coastal erosion.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Little Pelican?

During heatwaves, it is important to stay hydrated, seek out air-conditioned spaces, and check on neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Little Pelican?

You can find information about flood risks on the Lake Macquarie City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Little Pelican?

Lake Macquarie City Council has a climate strategy that outlines its plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections