Climate Risk Profile: Mongarlowe, NSW

Mongarlowe, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Mongarlowe faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. The suburb's inland location means it is not exposed to coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mongarlowe

increasing

Flood

60/100

Mongarlowe faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and historical flood events. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood conditions.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Proximity to waterways

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Mongarlowe has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Dry climate
·Proximity to bushland

increasing

Heat

40/100

Mongarlowe experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected. This could impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Mongarlowe is not exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mongarlowe

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Mongarlowe experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected. This could impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Proximity to waterways
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mongarlowe is not exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Mongarlowe has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Dry climate
·Proximity to bushland
·Increased temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Mongarlowe River
Elevation Range: 600-700m
Flood Zone: Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not Applicable
Erosion Risk: Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2019

bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 bushfires significantly impacted the region, with widespread damage to property and the environment.

Source

2016

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Mongarlowe River to flood, inundating low-lying areas and disrupting transportation.

Source

2013

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2013 resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	70	7.5(+0.5)	8.0(+1.0)
heat	40	4.5(+0.5)	5.0(+1.0)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Mongarlowe is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher flood, bushfire, and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Resilience Building

Long-term

Promote community resilience through education and awareness programs on climate change risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mongarlowe's Climate Risk Profile

Mongarlowe, located in New South Wales, is an inland suburb that faces a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, all of which are projected to worsen due to climate change.

Flooding is a significant risk due to the suburb's proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, could lead to more frequent and severe flood events. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfire risk is also high, given the suburb's location surrounded by bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, posing a threat to homes and lives. Preparedness and awareness are crucial for mitigating this risk.

Heatwaves are another growing concern, with rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected. This could impact vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Taking steps to stay cool and hydrated during heatwaves is essential.

While Mongarlowe is not exposed to coastal risks, the combined impact of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves presents a significant challenge. Residents and local authorities need to work together to adapt to these changing conditions and build a more resilient community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mongarlowe?

The main climate change risks in Mongarlowe are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare for a flood in Mongarlowe?

To prepare for a flood, you should know your flood risk, have an emergency plan, and keep your property protected. Stay informed about weather forecasts and warnings.

What should I do during a bushfire in Mongarlowe?

During a bushfire, follow your bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about the fire's location and intensity, and evacuate if necessary. Listen to the advice of emergency services.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Mongarlowe?

During a heatwave, stay cool and hydrated. Avoid strenuous activities, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members. Seek medical attention if you experience heat stress symptoms.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Mongarlowe?

Without knowing the local council, it is difficult to answer this question. However, councils typically develop climate strategies, implement adaptation measures, and promote community awareness.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Mongarlowe, use our analysis tool.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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