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Climate Risk in Pennant Hills, NSW

Pennant Hills, New South Wales· Hornsby· 2120
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Pennant Hills faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in terms of increased heatwave frequency and rainfall intensity. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Pennant Hills

increasing

Flood

65/100

Pennant Hills has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and potential for heavy rainfall. Properties near creeks and low-lying areas are most vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff
stable

Bushfire

40/100

Bushfire risk in Pennant Hills is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk during bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Heat

60/100

Pennant Hills is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is very low in Pennant Hills due to its distance from the coast. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Pennant Hills

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Pennant Hills is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Pennant Hills has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and potential for heavy rainfall. Properties near creeks and low-lying areas are most vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is very low in Pennant Hills due to its distance from the coast. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bushfire risk in Pennant Hills is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk during bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas with higher flood or bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain a building inspection report.
  • 4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Devlins Creek
Elevation Range
80-120m
Flood Zone
Some properties are within the 1% AEP flood zone.

Historical flood data indicates that properties near Devlins Creek are most at risk.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Some properties border Lane Cove National Park.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire prone land overlay applies to some areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check the NSW RFS website for specific property risk assessments.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the Sydney region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Negligible
Erosion Risk
Negligible

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Pennant Hills, particularly near Devlins Creek.

Source
1994
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Sydney region threatened properties in Pennant Hills bordering bushland.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Flash flooding occurred in Pennant Hills due to intense rainfall, causing damage to some properties.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Sydney experienced a prolonged heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in some areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire404.1(+0.1)4.3(+0.3)
heat606.4(+0.4)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Pennant Hills is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood risk and more frequent heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during periods of extreme heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire hazard reduction

Near-term

Conduct regular bushfire hazard reduction activities, such as clearing vegetation around properties, to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce the strain on water resources during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Pennant Hills's Climate Risk Profile

Pennant Hills, located in the upper North Shore of Sydney, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. Flooding is a primary concern due to the presence of creeks and waterways, which can overflow during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change projections indicate an increase in rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Bushfire risk is also a factor, particularly for properties bordering bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create a heightened risk of bushfires during the fire season. Residents should maintain their properties and be aware of fire safety guidelines.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. The urban environment can exacerbate the effects of heatwaves, creating an urban heat island effect. It is important to stay hydrated and take precautions during periods of extreme heat.

While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's distance from the coast, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and infrastructure, could still affect Pennant Hills. Residents should stay informed about climate change projections and take steps to adapt to the changing environment.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Hornsby Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Hornsby Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Pennant Hills?

The main climate change risks in Pennant Hills are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

You can prepare your property for flooding by clearing gutters and downpipes, raising electrical appliances, and storing valuables in a safe place.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How can I reduce my property's bushfire risk?

You can reduce your property's bushfire risk by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining your gutters, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Pennant Hills?

You can find more information about climate change in Pennant Hills on the Hornsby Shire Council website, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage website, and the CSIRO website.

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