Climate Risk Profile: Pimlico Island, NSW
Pimlico Island faces increasing risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Pimlico Island
Flood
Pimlico Island is at a high risk of flooding due to its low elevation and proximity to the Clarence River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Bushfire risk is relatively low on Pimlico Island due to its island geography and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could increase the risk of grass fires.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Pimlico Island is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·More frequent heatwaves
Coastal
Pimlico Island is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This could damage infrastructure and property, and displace residents.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm surge
Wind
Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail
Social
Moderate social stability — mixed urban density
Energy
Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Pimlico Island
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Pimlico Island is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·More frequent heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
flood Risk
Pimlico Island is at a high risk of flooding due to its low elevation and proximity to the Clarence River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Riverine flooding
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
coastal Risk
Pimlico Island is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This could damage infrastructure and property, and displace residents.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm surge
- ·Coastal erosion
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
bushfire Risk
Bushfire risk is relatively low on Pimlico Island due to its island geography and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could increase the risk of grass fires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Vegetation dryness
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
3.5
2050
4.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing risk of flooding and coastal erosion.
Price Impact
Property values may be negatively impacted by the increasing risk of climate change hazards.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood history of the property.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
- 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
- 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on the property.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Clarence River
- Elevation Range
- 0-5 meters
- Flood Zone
- High Risk
Pimlico Island is located within a known floodplain of the Clarence River.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- 500m
- Planning Overlay
- Not applicable
- Bushfire Prone Area
- No
Due to its island location and limited vegetation, the bushfire risk is relatively low.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 30.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Average January maximum temperature is based on nearby weather station data.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 5 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Moderate
- Erosion Risk
- Moderate
Historical Climate Events
The Clarence River experienced moderate flooding, inundating low-lying areas of Pimlico Island.
SourceMajor flooding of the Clarence River caused widespread inundation and damage on Pimlico Island.
SourceA prolonged heatwave in January 2020 resulted in high temperatures and heat stress on Pimlico Island.
SourceRenewed flooding of the Clarence River impacted Pimlico Island, though less severely than in 2019.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 70 | 7.5(+0.5) | 8.0(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 30 | 3.2(+0.2) | 3.5(+0.5) |
| heat | 60 | 6.3(+0.3) | 6.7(+0.7) |
| coastal | 60 | 6.5(+0.5) | 7.0(+1.0) |
By 2030, Pimlico Island is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant increases in flood and coastal risks. Heatwave frequency and intensity are also expected to rise.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termConstruct levees and seawalls to protect low-lying areas from flooding and coastal erosion.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreDevelop Heatwave Response Plan
ImmediateImplement a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreRaise Home Foundations
Long-termElevate homes and businesses to reduce the risk of flood damage.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreInstall Rainwater Tanks
Near-termInstall rainwater tanks to conserve water and reduce stormwater runoff.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePlant Native Vegetation
Long-termPlant native vegetation along the coastline to stabilize the soil and reduce erosion.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Pimlico Island's Climate Risk Profile
Pimlico Island, located in the Clarence River, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The island's low elevation makes it susceptible to flooding from increased rainfall and rising sea levels. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and coastal storms, further exacerbating these risks.
The primary concern for Pimlico Island is the increasing risk of flooding. The Clarence River is prone to flooding, and climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe floods. This could inundate homes and businesses, damage infrastructure, and disrupt essential services.
In addition to flooding, Pimlico Island is also at risk from heatwaves. As temperatures rise, the island is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which could pose a significant health risk, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Coastal erosion is another significant threat to Pimlico Island. Sea level rise is expected to erode the island's coastline, potentially damaging property and infrastructure. Increased storm surge could also inundate low-lying areas, further exacerbating the risk of coastal erosion.
Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from residents, businesses, and local government. This includes implementing adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change, such as improving flood defenses, developing heatwave response plans, and protecting coastal areas.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · Clarence Valley Council
Local Government Resources
Clarence Valley Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Pimlico Island?
The main climate change risks for Pimlico Island are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.
How will climate change affect property values on Pimlico Island?
Climate change may negatively impact property values on Pimlico Island due to the increasing risk of flooding and coastal erosion.
What can I do to protect my home from flooding on Pimlico Island?
You can protect your home from flooding by raising the foundations, installing flood barriers, and purchasing flood insurance.
How can I prepare for heatwaves on Pimlico Island?
You can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors.
What is the local council doing to address climate change on Pimlico Island?
The Clarence Valley Council is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community.
Where can I find more information about flood risks on Pimlico Island?
You can find more information about flood risks on the Clarence Valley Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.
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