Climate Risk Profile: Pimlico Island, NSW

Pimlico Island, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Pimlico Island faces increasing risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Pimlico Island

increasing

Flood

70/100

Pimlico Island is at a high risk of flooding due to its low elevation and proximity to the Clarence River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk is relatively low on Pimlico Island due to its island geography and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could increase the risk of grass fires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Pimlico Island is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Pimlico Island is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This could damage infrastructure and property, and displace residents.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Pimlico Island

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Pimlico Island is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

70/100

Pimlico Island is at a high risk of flooding due to its low elevation and proximity to the Clarence River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Pimlico Island is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This could damage infrastructure and property, and displace residents.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk is relatively low on Pimlico Island due to its island geography and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could increase the risk of grass fires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing risk of flooding and coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by the increasing risk of climate change hazards.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood history of the property.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on the property.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Clarence River
Elevation Range
0-5 meters
Flood Zone
High Risk

Pimlico Island is located within a known floodplain of the Clarence River.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
500m
Planning Overlay
Not applicable
Bushfire Prone Area
No

Due to its island location and limited vegetation, the bushfire risk is relatively low.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average January maximum temperature is based on nearby weather station data.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

The Clarence River experienced moderate flooding, inundating low-lying areas of Pimlico Island.

Source
2019
floodMajor

Major flooding of the Clarence River caused widespread inundation and damage on Pimlico Island.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2020 resulted in high temperatures and heat stress on Pimlico Island.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Renewed flooding of the Clarence River impacted Pimlico Island, though less severely than in 2019.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.5(+0.5)
heat606.3(+0.3)6.7(+0.7)
coastal606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)

By 2030, Pimlico Island is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant increases in flood and coastal risks. Heatwave frequency and intensity are also expected to rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Construct levees and seawalls to protect low-lying areas from flooding and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Implement a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Home Foundations

Long-term

Elevate homes and businesses to reduce the risk of flood damage.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Install Rainwater Tanks

Near-term

Install rainwater tanks to conserve water and reduce stormwater runoff.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Plant Native Vegetation

Long-term

Plant native vegetation along the coastline to stabilize the soil and reduce erosion.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Pimlico Island's Climate Risk Profile

Pimlico Island, located in the Clarence River, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The island's low elevation makes it susceptible to flooding from increased rainfall and rising sea levels. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and coastal storms, further exacerbating these risks.

The primary concern for Pimlico Island is the increasing risk of flooding. The Clarence River is prone to flooding, and climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe floods. This could inundate homes and businesses, damage infrastructure, and disrupt essential services.

In addition to flooding, Pimlico Island is also at risk from heatwaves. As temperatures rise, the island is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which could pose a significant health risk, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Coastal erosion is another significant threat to Pimlico Island. Sea level rise is expected to erode the island's coastline, potentially damaging property and infrastructure. Increased storm surge could also inundate low-lying areas, further exacerbating the risk of coastal erosion.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from residents, businesses, and local government. This includes implementing adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change, such as improving flood defenses, developing heatwave response plans, and protecting coastal areas.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · Clarence Valley Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Pimlico Island?

The main climate change risks for Pimlico Island are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

How will climate change affect property values on Pimlico Island?

Climate change may negatively impact property values on Pimlico Island due to the increasing risk of flooding and coastal erosion.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding on Pimlico Island?

You can protect your home from flooding by raising the foundations, installing flood barriers, and purchasing flood insurance.

How can I prepare for heatwaves on Pimlico Island?

You can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors.

What is the local council doing to address climate change on Pimlico Island?

The Clarence Valley Council is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community.

Where can I find more information about flood risks on Pimlico Island?

You can find more information about flood risks on the Clarence Valley Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections