Climate Risk Assessment: Tarrawanna, NSW

Tarrawanna, New South Wales· Wollongong· 2517
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Tarrawanna faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Increasing temperatures and potential coastal impacts also pose challenges. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.5
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tarrawanna

increasing

Flood

65/100

Tarrawanna faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to creeks and drainage systems. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The suburb has a high bushfire risk due to its location near bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Heat

45/100

Tarrawanna experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

While not directly on the coast, Tarrawanna is indirectly affected by coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges impacting nearby coastal communities.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tarrawanna

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

45/100

Tarrawanna experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Tarrawanna faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to creeks and drainage systems. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

While not directly on the coast, Tarrawanna is indirectly affected by coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges impacting nearby coastal communities.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The suburb has a high bushfire risk due to its location near bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Fuel load accumulation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience slower price growth.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections for the area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mullet Creek
Elevation Range
Varies from 20m to 150m
Flood Zone
Areas near Mullet Creek are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the creek. Council is undertaking drainage improvement projects.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Illawarra Escarpment
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties on the western edge of Tarrawanna are at higher risk. Regular property maintenance is crucial.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves. Cooling centers are available in Wollongong.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Indirectly exposed through impacts on Wollongong infrastructure.
Erosion Risk
Low direct erosion risk.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in Tarrawanna, impacting several homes and businesses. Mullet Creek overflowed its banks.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near the Illawarra Escarpment threatened properties in Tarrawanna. Firefighters successfully contained the blaze.

Source
2017
stormModerate

A severe storm brought heavy rain and strong winds to Tarrawanna, causing power outages and property damage.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted vulnerable residents, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat454.8(+0.3)5.0(+0.5)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.5(+0.5)

By 2030, Tarrawanna is projected to experience increased flood and bushfire risk due to more intense rainfall events and drier conditions. Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Immediate

Implement vegetation management programs and promote property maintenance to reduce bushfire fuel loads.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop a heatwave response plan and establish cooling centers to protect vulnerable residents.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Hazard Adaptation

Long-term

Monitor sea level rise and develop strategies to protect coastal infrastructure and communities.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Tarrawanna's Climate Risk Profile

Tarrawanna, located in the Wollongong region of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to intense rainfall and its proximity to creeks, and bushfires due to its location near bushland areas. Rising temperatures and indirect coastal impacts also contribute to the overall risk profile.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for flash flooding during heavy rainfall events. Urban development and reduced permeable surfaces exacerbate this risk. Bushfire risk is elevated due to dry conditions, strong winds, and the accumulation of fuel loads in surrounding bushland.

Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a threat to vulnerable populations. While not directly on the coast, Tarrawanna is indirectly affected by sea level rise and storm surges impacting nearby coastal communities, potentially disrupting supply chains and infrastructure.

Climate projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Residents and property owners should take proactive measures to mitigate these risks and adapt to the changing climate. This includes preparing for extreme weather events, maintaining properties to reduce bushfire risk, and supporting local government initiatives to improve resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Wollongong City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Tarrawanna?

The main risks are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Coastal impacts are also a concern due to the suburb's proximity to the coast.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

Ensure your property has adequate drainage, clear gutters and downpipes, and consider installing flood barriers if necessary.

What should I do during a bushfire?

Follow the advice of emergency services, evacuate if necessary, and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek refuge in air-conditioned spaces if possible.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Wollongong?

Visit the Wollongong City Council website or the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website for more information.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections