Flood Risk in Tongarra, NSW: 2026 Assessment

Tongarra, New South Wales· Shellharbour
Tongarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.Updated 31 May 2026

Flood Risk Score

6.5/10

Tongarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key Facts

Flood Risk
Tongarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.
Trend
increasing
Suburb
Tongarra, NSW
Overall Risk
Medium
Postcode
2527
Highest high-risk exposure
12.9% of land (bushfire)

Flood Risk Analysis

Tongarra, located in New South Wales, has a notable flood risk profile based on available data including proximity to waterways, elevation, and historical flood events. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) maintains river height and flood warning data for catchments across New South Wales.

Some areas near the lake are prone to inundation during heavy rainfall events.

Tongarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

For a comprehensive property-specific flood assessment including address-level elevation data, flood overlay mapping, and insurance cost estimates, use the ClimateNest full analysis tool. General suburb data cannot replace a site-specific evaluation.

Tongarra sits within ClimateNest's suburb-level hazard model for flood risk. 6.5% of the suburb's land area is mapped in high-risk flood zones and 72.9% in moderate-risk zones, based on the national hazard overlay. Exposure at this scale varies street by street, which is why an address-level check matters before you buy or insure a specific property in Tongarra.

Tongarra (postcode 2527) is tracked in ClimateNest's suburb hazard model, which maps the share of the suburb's land exposed to each hazard at high and moderate levels. The suburb's highest high-risk exposures are bushfire (12.9% of land in high-risk zones), surface flood (7.8% of land in high-risk zones), riverine flood (6.5% of land in high-risk zones). Exposure is not uniform across Tongarra — individual properties can sit well above or below these averages, so an address-level check is recommended before buying, selling or insuring.

Local Hazard Evidence

Nearest WaterwayLake Illawarra
Elevation Range5-20 meters
Flood Zone ClassificationPartially within flood zone

Historical Events

2011
Moderate

Major flooding in the Illawarra region caused widespread damage and disruption.

Adaptation & Mitigation Actions

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Improve bushfire management

Near-term

Implement strategies to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Develop heatwave response plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement measures to protect coastal properties from erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Council & Emergency Services

Shellharbour City Council
Emergency Services

Data last updated: 31 May 2026

Explore Tongarra Risk Reports

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Tongarra at risk of flooding?

Based on available data, Tongarra has a notable flood risk profile. Flood risk varies by address — check your specific property for precise flood zone mapping and elevation data with ClimateNest.

What flood insurance costs can I expect in Tongarra?

Insurance costs for flood cover in Tongarra depend on the property's flood zone classification, elevation, and proximity to waterways. ClimateNest provides address-level insurance cost estimates based on your property's specific hazard exposure.

Does flood risk affect property values in Tongarra?

Yes, flood risk can affect property values in Tongarra. Properties in mapped flood zones may experience lower buyer demand, reduced valuations, and higher insurance costs. Lenders increasingly assess flood exposure as part of mortgage risk evaluation.

How does elevation affect flood risk in Tongarra?

Elevation is a critical factor in flood risk. Properties at higher elevations within Tongarra typically have lower flood exposure than those near waterways or in low-lying areas. Address-level elevation data combined with BOM flood mapping provides the most accurate picture.

What share of Tongarra is exposed to high bushfire risk?

ClimateNest's hazard overlay maps 12.9% of Tongarra in high-risk zones for bushfire, with a further 63.3% in moderate-risk zones. Suburb-level exposure is not uniform — individual properties can differ from these averages, so an address-level check is recommended.

Is Tongarra Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Tongarra, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections