Climate Risk in Upper Rollands Plains, NSW
Upper Rollands Plains faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. The suburb's inland location mitigates coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Rollands Plains
Flood
Upper Rollands Plains faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Proximity to waterways
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in Upper Rollands Plains is moderate. The area is surrounded by bushland, which can act as a fuel source during dry periods. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and droughts, exacerbating bushfire risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Increased heatwaves
Heat
Upper Rollands Plains is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Upper Rollands Plains is not directly exposed to coastal hazards due to its inland location. The risk from sea level rise and coastal erosion is minimal.
Key drivers:
- ·Inland location
Wind
Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail
Social
Moderate social stability — mixed urban density
Energy
Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Rollands Plains
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Upper Rollands Plains is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
flood Risk
Upper Rollands Plains faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Proximity to waterways
- ·Low-lying areas
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
coastal Risk
Upper Rollands Plains is not directly exposed to coastal hazards due to its inland location. The risk from sea level rise and coastal erosion is minimal.
Primary Drivers
- ·Inland location
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Upper Rollands Plains is moderate. The area is surrounded by bushland, which can act as a fuel source during dry periods. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and droughts, exacerbating bushfire risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Increased heatwaves
- ·Drought conditions
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.5
2050
5.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate risks become more apparent.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Obtain comprehensive insurance coverage.
- 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Hastings River
- Elevation Range
- 50-100 meters
- Flood Zone
- Low to moderate risk areas identified
Historical flood data indicates periodic inundation of low-lying areas near the Hastings River.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to state forest
- Planning Overlay
- RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 31.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase significantly by 2050.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 35 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
The Hastings River experienced moderate flooding, impacting low-lying areas in and around Upper Rollands Plains.
SourceBushfires in the region caused significant smoke haze and required local residents to be prepared for potential evacuation.
SourceA prolonged heatwave resulted in increased demand for emergency services and placed stress on vulnerable populations.
SourceSignificant flooding event impacted the region, causing road closures and property damage.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 60 | 6.5(+0.5) | 7.0(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 40 | 4.3(+0.3) | 4.7(+0.7) |
| heat | 70 | 7.7(+0.7) | 8.5(+1.5) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Upper Rollands Plains is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and flooding events. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termInvest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness
ImmediateImplement community education programs on bushfire preparedness and evacuation procedures.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreHeatwave Action Plan
Near-termDevelop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreWater Conservation
Long-termPromote water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Upper Rollands Plains's Climate Risk Profile
Upper Rollands Plains, located in New South Wales, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to waterways, bushfires due to surrounding bushland, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.
The risk of flooding is expected to increase as climate change leads to more intense rainfall events. This could impact properties located in low-lying areas and near rivers. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have evacuation plans in place.
The bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly during dry periods and heatwaves. The surrounding bushland provides ample fuel for fires, and climate change is projected to worsen fire conditions. Property owners should maintain their properties to reduce fire hazards and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations. Residents should take precautions to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water, staying indoors, and using air conditioning.
While Upper Rollands Plains is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the impacts of climate change will still be felt through increased extreme weather events. It is important for residents to be aware of these risks and take steps to prepare.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Port Macquarie-Hastings Council
Local Government Resources
Port Macquarie-Hastings Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Upper Rollands Plains?
The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.
How will climate change affect property values in Upper Rollands Plains?
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate risks become more apparent. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.
What is the council doing to address climate change?
The Port Macquarie-Hastings Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?
Clear vegetation around your home, maintain your gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Refer to the NSW RFS website for detailed guidance.
What should I do during a heatwave?
Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, use air conditioning if available, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
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