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Climate Risk in Upper Taylors Arm, NSW

Upper Taylors Arm, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Upper Taylors Arm faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Taylors Arm

increasing

Flood

65/100

Upper Taylors Arm experiences a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Climate change
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The area around Upper Taylors Arm is prone to bushfires, particularly during dry periods and heatwaves. The risk is exacerbated by surrounding bushland and vegetation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Upper Taylors Arm experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Upper Taylors Arm is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Taylors Arm

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Upper Taylors Arm experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Upper Taylors Arm experiences a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Climate change
  • ·Deforestation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Upper Taylors Arm is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The area around Upper Taylors Arm is prone to bushfires, particularly during dry periods and heatwaves. The risk is exacerbated by surrounding bushland and vegetation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves
  • 3.Review insurance options and premiums
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Taylors Arm River
Elevation Range
50-150m
Flood Zone
Likely

The area has experienced several flood events in the past, impacting local infrastructure and residents.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bushfire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The surrounding bushland provides ample fuel for bushfires, increasing the risk to properties in the area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The area experiences several days above 35°C during summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
35 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Macleay River, impacting Upper Taylors Arm and surrounding areas.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Severe bushfires impacted the region, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in the area.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire707.3(+0.3)7.7(+0.7)
heat505.7(+0.7)6.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Upper Taylors Arm is projected to experience an increase in flood and bushfire risk, with more frequent and intense heatwaves. Coastal risks remain minimal.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems and build flood levees to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Manage Bushfire Fuel Loads

Immediate

Implement regular vegetation clearing and controlled burns to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Preparedness Plans

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide public awareness campaigns on heatwave safety.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Long-term

Update building codes to ensure new constructions are resilient to climate hazards.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Upper Taylors Arm's Climate Risk Profile

Upper Taylors Arm, located in New South Wales, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to waterways, bushfires due to the surrounding bushland, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase with more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also projected to rise due to drier conditions and higher temperatures. Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe, impacting vulnerable populations.

While Upper Taylors Arm is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from sea level rise and coastal erosion. Changes in weather patterns and increased storm intensity could also affect the area.

Adaptation measures are crucial to mitigate these risks and protect the community. These include improving flood defenses, managing bushfire fuel loads, and implementing heatwave preparedness plans. Community awareness and education are also essential for building resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Kempsey Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Kempsey Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Upper Taylors Arm?

The main climate risks are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. The area is prone to flooding due to its proximity to waterways, bushfires due to the surrounding bushland, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.

How will climate change affect Upper Taylors Arm in the future?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves in Upper Taylors Arm. This could lead to property damage, health impacts, and economic losses.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

You can improve drainage around your property, install flood barriers, and raise electrical appliances above flood level. It's also important to have flood insurance.

How can I prepare for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your property, have a bushfire survival plan, and pack an emergency kit. Stay informed about bushfire warnings and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned buildings, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Upper Taylors Arm, use our analysis tool.

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$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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