Climate Risk Profile: Alyarrmanje, NT

Alyarrmanje, Northern Territory

High Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Alyarrmanje faces significant risks from bushfires and heatwaves, with moderate flood risk. Climate change is projected to increase the severity and frequency of these events. Residents should prepare for hotter, drier conditions and increased bushfire danger.

Overall Risk Score

72/100

High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

8.0

Heat

7.5

Coastal

2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Alyarrmanje

increasing

Flood

65/100

Alyarrmanje faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in river flow patterns

increasing

Bushfire

80/100

The bushfire risk in Alyarrmanje is high due to the surrounding vegetation and dry climate. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Prolonged dry periods

increasing

Heat

75/100

Alyarrmanje experiences high temperatures, particularly during the summer months. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

20/100

Alyarrmanje is not located near the coast, so the risk from coastal hazards is low. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

·Distance from the coast

increasing

Wind

60/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

60/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

35/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

60/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Alyarrmanje

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

75/100

Alyarrmanje experiences high temperatures, particularly during the summer months. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.7

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Alyarrmanje faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in river flow patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Alyarrmanje is not located near the coast, so the risk from coastal hazards is low. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

The bushfire risk in Alyarrmanje is high due to the surrounding vegetation and dry climate. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Prolonged dry periods
·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area overlays.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local creeks and rivers
Elevation Range: Relatively flat terrain
Flood Zone: Areas near waterways may be susceptible to flooding

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay: Refer to NT Fire and Rescue Service for bushfire prone area overlays
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 38°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 15 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 200 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2019

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Alyarrmanje, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source

2020

bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Alyarrmanje caused property damage and required evacuations.

Source

2022

floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Alyarrmanje, disrupting traffic and damaging some properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.8(+0.3)	7.1(+0.6)
bushfire	80	8.6(+0.6)	9.0(+1.0)
heat	75	8.2(+0.7)	8.9(+1.4)
coastal	20	2.0	2.0

By 2030, Alyarrmanje is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased bushfire risk, and a higher chance of flooding due to heavier rainfall events. Coastal risks remain low.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a community heatwave plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers, provide public education on heat safety, and ensure vulnerable residents have access to support during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement bushfire mitigation measures

Immediate

Conduct fuel reduction burns, maintain firebreaks, and educate residents on bushfire preparedness.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to use water wisely and implement water-saving measures to address potential water scarcity issues.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Alyarrmanje's Climate Risk Profile

Alyarrmanje, located in the Northern Territory, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are increasing temperatures, prolonged dry periods, and the associated risk of bushfires. The region also faces a moderate risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall events.

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of residents, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. It is crucial to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of extreme heat.

Bushfire risk is a major concern, with the potential for devastating consequences to property and lives. Effective bushfire management strategies, including fuel reduction and community education, are essential to minimize the risk.

While coastal risks are low, the potential for flooding from heavy rainfall events should not be overlooked. Infrastructure improvements and emergency preparedness planning can help to reduce the impact of floods.

Overall, Alyarrmanje needs to prioritize climate change adaptation measures to protect its community and environment. This includes investing in infrastructure, implementing sustainable land management practices, and raising awareness among residents about the risks and how to prepare for them.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Fire and Rescue Service · Northern Territory Government

Local Government Resources

Not applicable

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Alyarrmanje?

The main risks are increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense heatwaves, higher bushfire risk, and a greater chance of flooding due to heavier rainfall events.

How can I prepare for a heatwave in Alyarrmanje?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

What should I do to protect my property from bushfires?

Maintain firebreaks, clear vegetation around your home, have a bushfire survival plan, and monitor fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Alyarrmanje?

Refer to the Northern Territory Government's flood maps and emergency management resources for information about flood risks and preparedness.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The Northern Territory Government is developing and implementing climate change strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Refer to their website for more information.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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