Climate Risk Assessment: Bakewell, NT

Bakewell, Northern Territory· City of Palmerston· 0832

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Bakewell is a suburb in Palmerston, Northern Territory, that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. While bushfire and coastal risks are relatively low, the increasing intensity of heat and rainfall events due to climate change requires attention.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Bakewell

increasing

Flood

60/100

Bakewell faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from local waterways. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

stable

Bushfire

40/100

Bakewell has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its location and urban development. However, surrounding areas with vegetation pose a potential threat, especially during dry periods.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Wind patterns

increasing

Heat

70/100

Bakewell experiences high temperatures, particularly during the summer months, leading to heat stress risks for vulnerable populations. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Bakewell is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

·Distance from the coast

increasing

Wind

42/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

42/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Bakewell

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Bakewell experiences high temperatures, particularly during the summer months, leading to heat stress risks for vulnerable populations. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Bakewell faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from local waterways. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Sea level rise

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Bakewell is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP2.6)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bakewell has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its location and urban development. However, surrounding areas with vegetation pose a potential threat, especially during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Wind patterns
·Human activity

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of flooding and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heat stress.
3.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.
4.Ensure adequate insurance coverage for flood and heatwave damage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Elizabeth River
Elevation Range: 10-20 meters
Flood Zone: Areas near Elizabeth River are prone to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 2-5 km to surrounding bushland areas
Planning Overlay: Check with NT Fire and Rescue Service for current bushfire prone area overlays.
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 15 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low
Erosion Risk: Negligible

Historical Climate Events

2012

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Palmerston, including some areas near Bakewell.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions for heat-related illnesses in the Darwin region.

Source

2023

floodMinor

Heavy rains caused flash flooding in low-lying areas, disrupting traffic and causing minor property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.3(+0.3)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Bakewell is projected to experience a noticeable increase in heatwave intensity and frequency, along with a higher risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will slightly increase. Coastal risks remain low.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and expand drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during prolonged dry periods and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Long-term

Educate residents on bushfire safety and preparedness, including creating firebreaks and maintaining properties.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Bakewell's Climate Risk Profile

Bakewell, located in the City of Palmerston, is subject to a range of climate-related risks that are expected to intensify in the coming decades. The most significant threats are flooding from increased rainfall and heatwaves during the summer months. The suburb's proximity to local waterways increases its vulnerability to flooding, while rising temperatures pose health risks, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Bushfire risk is comparatively lower due to the urbanized nature of Bakewell, but surrounding areas with more vegetation could pose a threat during dry seasons. Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location.

Climate change projections indicate that Bakewell will experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as increased rainfall intensity, leading to a higher risk of flooding. These changes necessitate proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and infrastructure.

Residents and local authorities should focus on strategies to mitigate the impacts of flooding and heatwaves, such as improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heat action plans, and promoting water conservation. Preparing for potential bushfire events in surrounding areas is also important. Long-term planning should consider climate change projections to ensure the sustainability and resilience of Bakewell.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Fire and Rescue Service · City of Palmerston

Local Government Resources

City of Palmerston

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Bakewell?

The primary climate change risks for Bakewell are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Bakewell?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value, while increased heatwave risks could also impact property desirability.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Bakewell?

The City of Palmerston is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting water conservation.

How can I prepare my home for increased heatwaves?

You can prepare your home by installing insulation, using energy-efficient appliances, and creating shaded outdoor areas. Consider installing air conditioning if you don't already have it.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Bakewell?

You can find information about flood risks on the City of Palmerston website and through the Northern Territory Government's emergency management resources.