Climate Risk Profile: Casuarina, NT

Casuarina, Northern Territory· City of Darwin· 0810
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Casuarina faces a moderate climate risk profile, with the most significant threats stemming from heat, flooding, and coastal hazards. Rising temperatures and sea levels are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Casuarina

increasing

Flood

60/100

Casuarina faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Casuarina is relatively low compared to other regions, but still present due to surrounding vegetation. Dry conditions and strong winds can increase the potential for fire spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns
increasing

Heat

70/100

Casuarina experiences high temperatures and humidity, leading to significant heat stress during the summer months. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased humidity
increasing

Coastal

60/100

As a coastal suburb, Casuarina is vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion. Storm surges and king tides can inundate low-lying areas, damaging infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
increasing

Wind

42/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

42/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Casuarina

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Casuarina experiences high temperatures and humidity, leading to significant heat stress during the summer months. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased humidity
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Casuarina faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

As a coastal suburb, Casuarina is vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion. Storm surges and king tides can inundate low-lying areas, damaging infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Casuarina is relatively low compared to other regions, but still present due to surrounding vegetation. Dry conditions and strong winds can increase the potential for fire spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns
  • ·Land management practices

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding and coastal damage.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's elevation and drainage.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.
  • 5.Evaluate the property's vulnerability to heat stress.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Rapid Creek
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Significant flooding occurred in 2012 and 2023, impacting properties near Rapid Creek.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
500m to Lee Point bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Casuarina is adjacent to areas designated as bushfire prone, requiring adherence to building codes.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
15 days

High humidity levels exacerbate heat stress during the wet season.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Casuarina, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2012
floodModerate

Widespread flooding occurred in Darwin, including Casuarina, due to a monsoon event.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

Record-breaking temperatures led to a heatwave in Darwin, with Casuarina experiencing high levels of heat stress.

Source
2006
stormMinor

Tropical Cyclone Monica caused minor damage in Casuarina.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.3(+0.3)6.8(+0.8)
bushfire303.1(+0.1)3.3(+0.3)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal606.4(+0.4)7.0(+1.0)

By 2030, under a moderate emissions scenario, Casuarina is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk. Heat risk will increase significantly, while flood and coastal risks will also rise moderately.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plans

Immediate

Implement heat action plans to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce demand on water resources during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Casuarina's Climate Risk Profile

Casuarina, located in the Northern Territory, is a coastal suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall and storm surges, heat stress due to rising temperatures, and coastal erosion from sea level rise.

The suburb's low-lying topography and proximity to the coast make it particularly susceptible to flooding. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, leading to more frequent and severe flooding. Sea level rise will further exacerbate this risk by increasing the extent of inundation during storm surges and high tides.

Rising temperatures pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of Casuarina residents. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are expected to increase, leading to higher rates of heat stress and heatstroke, particularly among vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these impacts.

Coastal erosion is another growing concern for Casuarina. Sea level rise is already causing erosion of beaches and foreshores, threatening coastal infrastructure and property. Increased storm intensity can accelerate this process, leading to further loss of land and damage to coastal assets.

Addressing these climate risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Adaptation strategies include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal protection measures, and developing heat action plans. Mitigation efforts focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow the pace of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Emergency Services · City of Darwin

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Casuarina?

Casuarina faces significant risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change. Rising sea levels and increased rainfall intensity are expected to exacerbate these risks.

How will climate change affect property values in Casuarina?

Properties in low-lying areas of Casuarina may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk and coastal erosion. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What is the City of Darwin doing to address climate change?

The City of Darwin has implemented a climate change strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy efficiency, and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts?

Residents can take steps to prepare for climate change impacts by improving their home's flood resistance, conserving water, and developing a heat action plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Casuarina?

You can find more information about climate change in Casuarina on the City of Darwin website, the Northern Territory Government website, and the CSIRO website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections