Climate Risk Profile: Fannie Bay, NT

Fannie Bay, Northern Territory· City of Darwin· 0820

High Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Fannie Bay is a coastal suburb in Darwin, Northern Territory, that faces significant climate change risks. The primary threats are coastal inundation, heatwaves, and increased flooding due to rising sea levels and more intense rainfall events. Residents should prepare for these challenges and take steps to adapt to the changing climate.

Overall Risk Score

72/100

High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.8

Bushfire

3.5

Heat

8.5

Coastal

10.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Fannie Bay

increasing

Flood

68/100

Fannie Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

stable

Bushfire

35/100

The risk of bushfire in Fannie Bay is relatively low due to the suburb's coastal location and limited vegetation. However, dry vegetation in nearby areas can pose a threat during the dry season.

Key drivers:

·Dry season conditions
·Vegetation dryness

increasing

Heat

85/100

Fannie Bay experiences high heat levels, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate heat stress, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

increasing

Coastal

100/100

Fannie Bay is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards, including sea level rise and storm surge. The suburb's low elevation and coastal exposure make it susceptible to inundation and erosion.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

increasing

Wind

60/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

60/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

35/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

60/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Fannie Bay

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

85/100

Fannie Bay experiences high heat levels, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate heat stress, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

9.0

2050

9.5

Data source

flood Risk

68/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.3

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

100/100

Fannie Bay is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards, including sea level rise and storm surge. The suburb's low elevation and coastal exposure make it susceptible to inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

10.0

2050

10.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

35/100

The risk of bushfire in Fannie Bay is relatively low due to the suburb's coastal location and limited vegetation. However, dry vegetation in nearby areas can pose a threat during the dry season.

Primary Drivers

·Dry season conditions
·Vegetation dryness
·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.7

2050

3.9

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of coastal inundation and extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and coastal inundation zones.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Consider the long-term climate change risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Darwin Harbour
Elevation Range: 0-10 meters
Flood Zone: Coastal Inundation Zone

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 1-2 km to Casuarina Coastal Reserve
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Management Overlay may apply to properties near the reserve.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 15 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Significant exposure to sea level rise impacts.
Erosion Risk: Moderate erosion risk along the coastline.

Historical Climate Events

2012

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Fannie Bay.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased heat stress and health concerns.

Source

2023

coastalMinor

King tides caused minor coastal inundation in some areas of Fannie Bay.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	68	7.1(+0.3)	7.5(+0.7)
bushfire	35	3.6(+0.1)	3.7(+0.2)
heat	85	9.2(+0.7)	10.0(+1.5)
coastal	100	11.0(+1.0)	12.0(+2.0)

By 2030, Fannie Bay is projected to experience increased heatwaves and coastal inundation. Sea levels are expected to rise, leading to more frequent and severe flooding during high tides and storm surges. Heatwaves will become more intense and prolonged, posing a greater risk to public health.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Immediate

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls and beach nourishment to reduce the risk of coastal inundation and erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improved Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure to improve stormwater management and reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Fannie Bay's Climate Risk Profile

Fannie Bay, a suburb of Darwin, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its low-lying coastal location. The most pressing concern is the increasing risk of coastal inundation from sea level rise and storm surges. This poses a direct threat to properties and infrastructure along the coastline.

Rising temperatures are another significant challenge for Fannie Bay. The suburb already experiences high heat levels, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves. This can have serious health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

Changes in rainfall patterns are also a concern. While the Northern Territory experiences a distinct wet and dry season, climate change is projected to alter these patterns, potentially leading to more intense rainfall events and increased flooding. This can overwhelm drainage systems and cause damage to properties.

Addressing these climate change risks requires a multi-faceted approach. This includes implementing coastal protection measures, improving drainage infrastructure, and developing heatwave management plans. Community engagement and education are also crucial to ensure that residents are aware of the risks and prepared to take action.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Emergency Services · City of Darwin

Local Government Resources

City of Darwin

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Fannie Bay?

The main climate change risks for Fannie Bay are coastal inundation from sea level rise and storm surges, increased heatwaves, and changes in rainfall patterns leading to more intense flooding.

How will sea level rise affect Fannie Bay?

Sea level rise is expected to cause more frequent and severe coastal flooding, particularly during high tides and storm surges. This can damage properties and infrastructure along the coastline.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Fannie Bay?

During heatwaves, it is important to stay hydrated, stay in air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Fannie Bay?

You can find information about flood risks on the City of Darwin website and the Northern Territory Government's environment website.

What is the City of Darwin doing to address climate change?

The City of Darwin has a climate strategy that outlines its plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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