Climate Risk in Larrakeyah, Northern Territory

Larrakeyah, Northern Territory· Darwin· 0820
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Larrakeyah, NT, faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding, heat, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are key drivers of these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Larrakeyah

increasing

Flood

60/100

Larrakeyah faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to Darwin Harbour. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
stable

Bushfire

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Larrakeyah is relatively low compared to other regions, due to its urban environment and limited vegetation. However, dry grass and nearby parklands can pose a localized threat during the dry season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry season conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness
increasing

Heat

70/100

Larrakeyah experiences high heat levels, particularly during the wet season. Rising temperatures and increased humidity can lead to heat stress and discomfort for residents.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

60/100

As a coastal suburb, Larrakeyah is vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges. Coastal erosion and inundation pose a threat to infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
increasing

Wind

42/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

42/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Larrakeyah

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Larrakeyah experiences high heat levels, particularly during the wet season. Rising temperatures and increased humidity can lead to heat stress and discomfort for residents.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·High humidity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Larrakeyah faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to Darwin Harbour. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

As a coastal suburb, Larrakeyah is vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges. Coastal erosion and inundation pose a threat to infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Larrakeyah is relatively low compared to other regions, due to its urban environment and limited vegetation. However, dry grass and nearby parklands can pose a localized threat during the dry season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry season conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by increased flood and coastal risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Consider heat mitigation measures.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Darwin Harbour
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Larrakeyah's low elevation makes it susceptible to tidal inundation and storm surge.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
1-2 km to Casuarina Coastal Reserve
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Management Overlay may apply in some areas
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

While urbanized, proximity to reserves increases bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
15 days

High humidity exacerbates heat stress during the wet season.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High exposure to sea level rise
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along the coastline

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Larrakeyah.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions for heat-related illnesses.

Source
2023
coastalMinor

King tides caused minor coastal inundation in Larrakeyah.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.2(+1.2)
bushfire303.1(+0.1)3.3(+0.3)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
coastal606.6(+0.6)7.4(+1.4)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Larrakeyah is projected to experience increased heat and coastal flooding by 2030.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide public education on heat safety during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise awareness of climate risks

Near-term

Conduct community workshops and distribute information on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Larrakeyah's Climate Risk Profile

Larrakeyah is a coastal suburb of Darwin, Northern Territory, characterized by its proximity to Darwin Harbour and low-lying topography. This makes it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, especially sea level rise and increased storm intensity.

The primary climate risks for Larrakeyah include flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. Flooding can occur due to intense rainfall events and storm surges, while heatwaves pose a significant health risk to vulnerable populations. Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation, threatening infrastructure and property.

The Northern Territory government and the City of Darwin are taking steps to address climate change, including developing climate adaptation strategies and investing in infrastructure improvements. However, individual residents and property owners also need to take proactive measures to protect themselves and their assets.

These measures include preparing for extreme weather events, investing in flood protection measures, and considering the long-term climate risks when making property decisions. Staying informed about climate projections and local government initiatives is crucial for building resilience in Larrakeyah.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Emergency Services · City of Darwin

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Larrakeyah?

The main climate change risks for Larrakeyah include increased flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges.

How will sea level rise affect Larrakeyah?

Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation, threatening infrastructure, property, and natural habitats in Larrakeyah.

What is the City of Darwin doing to address climate change?

The City of Darwin is developing climate adaptation strategies, investing in infrastructure improvements, and promoting community awareness of climate risks.

How can I prepare my property for increased flooding?

You can prepare your property for increased flooding by elevating structures, installing flood barriers, and improving drainage.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Larrakeyah?

You can find more information about climate change in Larrakeyah on the City of Darwin website, the Northern Territory government website, and the CSIRO website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections