Climate Risk in Maningrida, Northern Territory

Maningrida, Northern Territory· West Arnhem· 0822
High Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Maningrida faces significant climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. The community needs to implement adaptation measures to protect its residents and infrastructure. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
8.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
7.5
Coastal
7.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Maningrida

increasing

Flood

80/100

Maningrida faces a high risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to rivers. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding, impacting residential and commercial areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The risk of bushfires in Maningrida is moderate, with the surrounding savanna grasslands and woodlands posing a potential fire hazard during the dry season. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could exacerbate fire risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Prolonged dry periods
increasing

Heat

75/100

Maningrida experiences high temperatures and humidity, particularly during the wet season. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing health risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

75/100

As a coastal community, Maningrida is vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion. Rising sea levels can inundate low-lying areas, damage infrastructure, and displace communities.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
increasing

Wind

60/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

60/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

35/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

60/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Maningrida

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

75/100

Maningrida experiences high temperatures and humidity, particularly during the wet season. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing health risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (High Emissions)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

80/100

Maningrida faces a high risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to rivers. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding, impacting residential and commercial areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (High Emissions)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

coastal Risk

75/100

As a coastal community, Maningrida is vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion. Rising sea levels can inundate low-lying areas, damage infrastructure, and displace communities.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (High Emissions)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The risk of bushfires in Maningrida is moderate, with the surrounding savanna grasslands and woodlands posing a potential fire hazard during the dry season. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could exacerbate fire risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Prolonged dry periods
  • ·Fuel load accumulation

Projections (High Emissions)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to the high risk of flooding and other climate-related hazards.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas may experience a decrease in value due to the risk of flooding and sea level rise.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the property's energy efficiency and ability to withstand extreme weather events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Liverpool River
Elevation Range
0-10m
Flood Zone
Coastal Floodplain

Maningrida is situated on a coastal floodplain, making it highly susceptible to tidal and riverine flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area surrounding Maningrida is classified as a bushfire-prone area due to the presence of flammable vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
15 days

Maningrida experiences frequent heat stress events during the wet season, with high temperatures and humidity posing health risks.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in Maningrida, inundating homes and businesses.

Source
2015
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source
2018
floodMajor

A major flood event caused significant damage to infrastructure and displaced many residents.

Source
2020
coastalMinor

Coastal erosion damaged some beachfront properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: High Emissions

HazardToday20302050
flood808.5(+0.5)9.0(+1.0)
bushfire606.3(+0.3)6.5(+0.5)
heat758.0(+0.5)8.5(+1.0)
coastal758.0(+0.5)8.5(+1.0)

By 2030, Maningrida is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including floods, heatwaves, and coastal inundation. Sea level rise will continue to threaten low-lying areas, and bushfire risk will increase due to hotter and drier conditions.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Immediate

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Build Seawalls and Coastal Defenses

Near-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Relocate Vulnerable Assets

Long-term

Relocate critical infrastructure and residential areas away from low-lying coastal areas.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Strategies

Near-term

Reduce fuel loads and implement firebreaks to mitigate the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwave events, including providing access to cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Maningrida's Climate Risk Profile

Maningrida, located on the coast of Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory, is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The community's low-lying coastal location makes it particularly susceptible to flooding from intense rainfall events and rising sea levels. The combination of these factors poses a significant threat to the town's infrastructure, housing, and cultural heritage.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with the surrounding savanna grasslands and woodlands prone to fires during the dry season. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, threatening lives and property. The region already experiences high temperatures and humidity, and climate change is expected to exacerbate heatwave conditions, posing health risks to vulnerable populations.

Sea level rise is a major threat to Maningrida, with the potential to inundate low-lying areas, erode coastlines, and damage critical infrastructure. The community needs to implement adaptation measures to protect itself from these impacts. These measures may include building seawalls, improving drainage infrastructure, and relocating vulnerable assets.

Addressing climate change in Maningrida requires a collaborative effort involving the local community, government agencies, and other stakeholders. By working together, the community can build resilience to climate change and ensure a sustainable future for generations to come.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Police, Fire and Emergency Services · West Arnhem Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Maningrida?

Maningrida faces significant risks from flooding, sea level rise, heatwaves, and bushfires due to climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Maningrida?

Sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying areas of Maningrida, damage infrastructure, and displace communities.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The West Arnhem Regional Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

How can residents prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking shade, and avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

What should I do during a flood?

During a flood, it is important to evacuate to higher ground and avoid driving or walking through floodwaters.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Maningrida?

Information about emergency services in Maningrida can be found on the NT Police, Fire and Emergency Services website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections