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Climate Risk Assessment for Manly, NT

Manly, Northern Territory
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Manly, NT faces moderate climate risks. The primary concerns are increasing heatwaves and potential flooding. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly

increasing

Flood

60/100

Flooding can occur from heavy rainfall events, potentially impacting low-lying areas and properties close to waterways.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Bushfire risk is present due to surrounding vegetation, particularly during the dry season. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

The suburb experiences high temperatures, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Coastal risks include potential sea level rise and erosion, which could impact properties near the coastline.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
increasing

Wind

42/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

42/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

The suburb experiences high temperatures, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Flooding can occur from heavy rainfall events, potentially impacting low-lying areas and properties close to waterways.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Sea level rise

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Coastal risks include potential sea level rise and erosion, which could impact properties near the coastline.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bushfire risk is present due to surrounding vegetation, particularly during the dry season. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price impacts

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations
  • 2.Assess property resilience to heat and extreme weather
  • 3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion
  • 4.Review insurance coverage and potential premium increases

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local creeks and drainage systems
Elevation Range
Generally low-lying
Flood Zone
Potentially flood-prone areas near waterways

Check local council flood maps for specific property risks.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Refer to NT Fire and Rescue Service maps
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Maintain vegetation around properties to reduce fire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Take precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas may be exposed to sea level rise
Erosion Risk
Some coastal erosion risk

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2018
heatwaveMajor

Record-breaking temperatures led to heat stress and health concerns.

Source
2020
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in surrounding areas caused smoke haze and potential property damage.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal505.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)

By 2030, Manly is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flooding and coastal risks are also expected to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Building Resilience

Near-term

Upgrade building materials and design to withstand extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Water Conservation Measures

Near-term

Reduce water consumption to mitigate the impacts of drought and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Prepare for Heatwaves

Immediate

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan, including measures to stay cool and hydrated.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Manage Vegetation

Near-term

Clear vegetation around properties to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Support Coastal Protection

Long-term

Participate in community efforts to protect coastlines from erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, located in the Northern Territory, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb is particularly vulnerable to increasing temperatures and heatwaves, which are projected to become more frequent and intense in the coming decades. Changes in rainfall patterns may also increase the risk of flooding, especially in low-lying areas.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly during the dry season. The surrounding vegetation can become highly flammable, and changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can exacerbate this risk. Coastal risks, including sea level rise and erosion, should also be considered for properties near the coastline.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will continue to increase in the future. It is important for residents and property owners to take steps to adapt to these changes, such as improving building resilience, implementing water conservation measures, and preparing for extreme weather events.

Local authorities are working to address these challenges through climate adaptation strategies and emergency management plans. However, individual action is also essential to protect lives and property.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Fire and Rescue Service · Northern Territory Government

Local Government Resources

Northern Territory Government

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Manly?

The main climate risks in Manly include increasing heatwaves, potential flooding, bushfire risk, and coastal hazards such as sea level rise and erosion.

How will climate change affect property values in Manly?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price impacts due to climate change. Buyers should assess property resilience and consider potential impacts of extreme weather events.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Manly?

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan, including measures to stay cool and hydrated. Seek air-conditioned environments and avoid strenuous activities during peak heat hours.

How can I reduce my property's bushfire risk?

Clear vegetation around your property and maintain a defensible space. Follow local fire safety guidelines and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Manly?

Consult local council flood maps and emergency services resources for information about flood risks in your area. Check your property's flood zone designation and take appropriate precautions.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Northern Territory Government is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to address the impacts of climate change. Check the council's website for more information.

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This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Manly, use our analysis tool.

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