Climate Risk Profile: Rosebery, NT

Rosebery, Northern Territory

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Rosebery faces moderate climate risks, primarily related to flooding and heatwaves. Rising temperatures and increased rainfall intensity are key drivers of these risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Rosebery

increasing

Flood

60/100

Rosebery faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine overflow. The area's flat topography and drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

stable

Bushfire

40/100

Rosebery has a relatively low bushfire risk due to the limited presence of dense vegetation in close proximity to residential areas. However, dry grass and scrubland can still pose a threat during the dry season.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Wind patterns

increasing

Heat

70/100

Rosebery experiences high temperatures, particularly during the summer months, leading to a significant heat risk. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, are most at risk.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

20/100

Rosebery is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

·Distance from the coast

increasing

Wind

42/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone winds

increasing

Storm

42/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and monsoonal storms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — remote communities

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — year-round cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Rosebery

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Rosebery faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine overflow. The area's flat topography and drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Rosebery is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Wind patterns
·Land management practices

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heat risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Inquire about bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Elizabeth River
Elevation Range: 5-15 meters
Flood Zone: Areas near Elizabeth River are prone to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 500m to sparse bushland
Planning Overlay: Bushfire prone area overlay may apply to some properties.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 15 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2012

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Rosebery, affecting some residential areas.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on the power grid.

Source

2020

floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred after a period of heavy rainfall, primarily affecting low-lying areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.3(+0.3)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	20	2.0	2.0

By 2030, Rosebery is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave intensity and frequency, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will see a slight increase. Coastal risk remains negligible.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and expand drainage systems to better manage increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heat Action Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement heat action plans to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce strain on water resources during dry periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Rosebery's Climate Risk Profile

Rosebery, Northern Territory, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks that are projected to intensify in the coming decades. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall and heatwaves resulting from rising average temperatures.

Flooding is a significant concern for Rosebery, with potential for both riverine and flash flooding. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, is expected to exacerbate this risk. The suburb's topography and existing drainage infrastructure may struggle to cope with more frequent and intense rainfall events.

Heatwaves pose another substantial threat to Rosebery. Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves can lead to heat stress and other health problems, particularly for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these risks in densely built areas.

While bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other parts of Australia, it is still a concern, especially during the dry season. Dry grass and scrubland can create fuel for fires, and strong winds can quickly spread flames.

Coastal risks are minimal due to Rosebery's inland location.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NT Emergency Services · NT Government

Local Government Resources

Unincorporated NT

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Rosebery?

The main climate change risks in Rosebery are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Rosebery?

Climate change may negatively affect property values in Rosebery due to increased risks of flooding and heatwaves. Properties in high-risk areas may experience a greater impact.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Rosebery?

To prepare for heatwaves, stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Rosebery?

You can find information about flood risks in Rosebery on the Northern Territory Government's website, which provides flood maps and data.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Rosebery?

The Northern Territory Government is developing and implementing climate change strategies and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Refer to their website for more information.