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Climate Risk in Caloundra, QLD

Caloundra, Queensland· Sunshine Coast Council· 4551
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Caloundra faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are key drivers of these risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
5.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Caloundra

increasing

Flood

65/100

Caloundra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal areas and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk in Caloundra is relatively low compared to other regions, but some areas near bushland reserves are still susceptible, particularly during dry periods.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Wind conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Caloundra experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heat stress events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

55/100

Caloundra is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge, which can lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Caloundra

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Caloundra experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heat stress events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Caloundra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal areas and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

55/100

Caloundra is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge, which can lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.2

2050

7.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk in Caloundra is relatively low compared to other regions, but some areas near bushland reserves are still susceptible, particularly during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Wind conditions
  • ·Land management practices

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in high-risk areas

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data
  • 2.Assess property's elevation and drainage
  • 3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise
  • 4.Evaluate bushfire risk if near bushland
  • 5.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Pumicestone Passage
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal and riverine flood zones

Several areas in Caloundra are prone to flash flooding during heavy rainfall events. The Sunshine Coast Council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
0-5 km to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
QFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Some parts of Caloundra, particularly those bordering bushland, are designated as bushfire prone areas. Residents should maintain their properties and be aware of fire danger ratings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Caloundra experiences several days above 30°C during summer. Heatwaves can pose a risk to elderly and vulnerable residents. BOM data indicates a trend of increasing average temperatures.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas exposed to sea level rise
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along some beaches

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Severe flooding occurred in Caloundra due to ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald, causing widespread damage and disruption.

Source
2009
stormModerate

A severe storm caused significant damage to properties and infrastructure in Caloundra.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Major flooding event impacted Caloundra, leading to evacuations and significant property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.2(+0.7)8.0(+1.5)
bushfire303.1(+0.1)3.3(+0.3)
heat606.6(+0.6)7.3(+1.3)
coastal555.9(+0.4)6.5(+1.0)

By 2030, under a moderate emissions scenario, Caloundra is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Raise awareness of heatwave risks

Immediate

Implement public awareness campaigns to educate residents about heatwave risks and protective measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen coastal defenses

Long-term

Invest in coastal protection measures such as seawalls and beach nourishment to reduce erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop emergency response plans

Immediate

Create and regularly update emergency response plans for floods, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Caloundra's Climate Risk Profile

Caloundra, located on the Sunshine Coast, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall and rising sea levels, heatwaves with increasing average temperatures, and coastal erosion due to storm surges.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's low-lying coastal areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Sea level rise exacerbates the risk, inundating low-lying areas and increasing the impact of storm surges.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Rising average temperatures and the urban heat island effect contribute to this risk. Coastal erosion is another concern, with sea level rise and storm surges threatening beaches and infrastructure.

Residents and property owners should take steps to prepare for these risks, including implementing flood mitigation measures, improving home cooling, and protecting coastal properties. The local council is also working to address climate change through adaptation planning and infrastructure improvements.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · QFES · Sunshine Coast Council

Local Government Resources

Sunshine Coast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Caloundra?

The main climate change risks in Caloundra are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges.

How is the Sunshine Coast Council addressing climate change?

The Sunshine Coast Council is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including adaptation planning, infrastructure improvements, and community engagement programs.

What can I do to prepare for floods in Caloundra?

You can prepare for floods by checking flood maps, assessing your property's elevation and drainage, and developing an emergency plan.

How can I protect myself from heatwaves in Caloundra?

You can protect yourself from heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and avoiding strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Caloundra?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast Council website, the Queensland Government website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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$300B+
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Climate Risk in Caloundra, QLD | ClimateNest