Climate Risk Profile: Esk, QLD

Esk, Queensland· Somerset Regional· 4312

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Esk is a town in the Somerset Region of Queensland, facing moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these hazards, requiring proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and its assets. The town is not exposed to coastal risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

5.5

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Esk

increasing

Flood

65/100

Esk faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the Brisbane River and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine flooding

increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Esk has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

55/100

Esk experiences moderately high temperatures, particularly during summer. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Esk is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Esk

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

55/100

Esk experiences moderately high temperatures, particularly during summer. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine flooding
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Esk is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.
4.Review insurance coverage and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Brisbane River
Elevation Range: 150-200m
Flood Zone: Areas adjacent to the Brisbane River are prone to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay: Refer to the Queensland Bushfire Prone Area map.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable.
Erosion Risk: Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodMajor

The 2011 Queensland floods caused significant inundation in Esk, affecting homes and businesses.

Source

2019

bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region surrounding Esk caused property damage and evacuations.

Source

2023

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in Esk, causing road closures and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.7(+0.7)
heat	55	5.9(+0.4)	6.4(+0.9)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Esk is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by increased flooding and heatwave intensity. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood mitigation infrastructure, such as levees and drainage systems, to protect properties from inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Management

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns and vegetation clearing, to reduce the risk of wildfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Esk's Climate Risk Profile

Esk, Queensland, is situated inland and is primarily vulnerable to inland climate hazards. The primary concern for Esk is the increasing risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Brisbane River and other waterways. Climate projections indicate that rainfall intensity will increase, leading to more frequent and severe flood events. This poses a threat to residential and commercial properties, as well as critical infrastructure.

Bushfire risk is also a significant concern for Esk, particularly during the dry season. The surrounding bushland creates a potential source of ignition, and hot, dry conditions can quickly escalate fire danger. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to longer fire seasons and more intense bushfires.

Heatwaves are another growing threat to Esk, with rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events. This can have significant impacts on human health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

While Esk is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the town. Therefore, a comprehensive adaptation strategy is needed to address the range of climate risks facing Esk.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Emergency Services · Somerset Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Somerset Regional Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Esk?

Esk faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Esk?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Esk?

The Somerset Regional Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to protect the community from climate risks.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Esk?

Consider installing flood barriers, elevating appliances, and purchasing flood insurance.

What should I do during a heatwave in Esk?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

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