Climate Risk Profile: Ferny Grove, QLD

Ferny Grove, Queensland· Brisbane City· 4055
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Ferny Grove faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events in the future.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ferny Grove

increasing

Flood

65/100

Ferny Grove has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could worsen the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Bushfire risk is present due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures may increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Ferny Grove is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is very low due to the suburb's distance from the coast.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ferny Grove

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Ferny Grove is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Ferny Grove has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could worsen the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is very low due to the suburb's distance from the coast.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bushfire risk is present due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures may increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and property maintenance.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency for heat mitigation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Cedar Creek
Elevation Range
50-150m
Flood Zone
Medium

Some properties are located in areas prone to flash flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
QFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

The 2011 Brisbane floods affected Ferny Grove, causing significant property damage.

Source
2009
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in 2009 put strain on local infrastructure and caused health concerns.

Source
2020
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and property damage in Ferny Grove.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Ferny Grove is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire hazard reduction

Near-term

Implement regular bushfire hazard reduction programs in surrounding bushland areas.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave preparedness plan

Immediate

Develop a community heatwave preparedness plan, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce strain on water resources during drier periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Ferny Grove's Climate Risk Profile

Ferny Grove, located in the foothills of Brisbane, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to waterways increases its vulnerability to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk, with more intense rainfall events becoming more frequent.

Bushfire risk is also a factor, given the surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions can increase the likelihood of bushfires, posing a threat to properties and residents. It is important for homeowners to maintain their properties and be aware of bushfire safety measures.

Heatwaves are another growing concern. As global temperatures rise, Ferny Grove is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can have significant health impacts, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, could still affect the community. Residents should stay informed about climate risks and take steps to adapt to the changing environment.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · QFES · Brisbane City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Ferny Grove?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Ferny Grove?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline. Increased insurance costs may also affect property values.

What can I do to prepare my home for increased heatwaves?

Improve insulation, install air conditioning or fans, and plant trees to provide shade.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Ferny Grove?

You can find flood maps and information on the Brisbane City Council website.

How can I prepare my property for bushfire season?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections