Climate Risk in Grange, QLD

Grange, Queensland· Brisbane City· 4051

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Grange faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of rainfall and the frequency of heat events. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Grange

increasing

Flood

60/100

Grange has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

stable

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk in Grange is relatively low due to the suburb's urban nature and limited vegetation. However, surrounding bushland areas pose a potential threat during extreme weather conditions.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation

increasing

Heat

70/100

Grange experiences high temperatures during summer, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is very low in Grange due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to the suburb.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Grange

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Grange experiences high temperatures during summer, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Grange has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is very low in Grange due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to the suburb.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.1

2050

1.2

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk in Grange is relatively low due to the suburb's urban nature and limited vegetation. However, surrounding bushland areas pose a potential threat during extreme weather conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry vegetation
·Extreme weather conditions

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas prone to flooding.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Consider the potential impact of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Kedron Brook
Elevation Range: 10-30 meters
Flood Zone: Medium

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 2 km
Planning Overlay: QFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 10 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodMajor

The 2011 Brisbane floods caused significant inundation in Grange, particularly along Kedron Brook.

Source

2013

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2013 resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source

2022

floodMajor

Severe flooding impacted Grange in February 2022, causing widespread damage and disruption.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	30	3.2(+0.2)	3.5(+0.5)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.1(+0.1)	1.2(+0.2)

By 2030, Grange is projected to experience a notable increase in flood and heatwave risks under a high emissions scenario. Rainfall intensity is expected to increase, leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Heatwaves will become more common and intense, posing a greater risk to vulnerable populations.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and expand drainage systems to better manage increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heat Action Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement heat action plans to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Long-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures in areas adjacent to bushland, including vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage water conservation practices to reduce strain on water resources during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Grange's Climate Risk Profile

Grange, a suburb of Brisbane, Queensland, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and heatwaves resulting from rising global temperatures. While bushfire and coastal risks are relatively low, the suburb needs to focus on adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of flooding and heat.

The suburb's proximity to waterways makes it susceptible to flooding, especially during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change projections indicate that rainfall intensity will increase, leading to more frequent and severe flood events. This poses a threat to properties and infrastructure in low-lying areas.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Grange. As global temperatures rise, the suburb is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can have adverse health impacts, particularly on vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

Although bushfire risk is relatively low due to the suburb's urban nature, surrounding bushland areas could pose a threat during extreme weather conditions. It is essential to maintain awareness and preparedness for bushfire events.

Coastal risks are minimal due to Grange's distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not expected to have a significant impact on the suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · QFES · Brisbane City Council

Local Government Resources

Brisbane City Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Grange?

The main climate change risks in Grange are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and heatwaves due to rising temperatures.

How will climate change affect property values in Grange?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk. Insurance premiums may also increase.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Grange?

Brisbane City Council is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including upgrading drainage infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and developing heat action plans.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Grange?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Follow the advice of Queensland Health during heatwave events.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Grange?

You can find information about flood risks on the Brisbane City Council website, including flood maps and historical flood data.

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