Climate Risk Profile: Idalia, QLD

Idalia, Queensland

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Idalia is a suburb of Townsville, Queensland, that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Idalia

increasing

Flood

60/100

Idalia faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Ross River and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Proximity to waterways

increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfire in Idalia is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hotter and drier conditions due to climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

70/100

Idalia experiences high temperatures, particularly during the summer months. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Idalia is located inland and has a low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

·Distance from the coast

increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Idalia

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Idalia experiences high temperatures, particularly during the summer months. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Proximity to waterways
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Idalia is located inland and has a low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfire in Idalia is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hotter and drier conditions due to climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property values.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Ross River
Elevation Range: 10-20 meters
Flood Zone: Medium Risk

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 500m
Planning Overlay: https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 8 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2019

floodMajor

The Townsville floods of 2019 caused widespread damage in Idalia, with many homes inundated by floodwaters. The Ross River Dam was at capacity and released large volumes of water.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

Townsville experienced a prolonged heatwave in early 2018, with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several consecutive days. This put a strain on the electricity grid and caused health problems for vulnerable residents.

Source

2009

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in parts of Idalia, with some roads and properties affected.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.5(+0.5)
heat	70	7.7(+0.7)	8.2(+1.2)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Idalia is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant impacts from increased heatwaves and flooding. Bushfire risk is also expected to increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure improvements to protect against flooding, such as levees, drainage systems, and flood-proofing of buildings.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations, including early warning systems, cooling centers, and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce the risk of bushfires, such as clearing vegetation around homes, creating firebreaks, and educating residents about bushfire safety.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation to reduce the strain on water resources during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Idalia's Climate Risk Profile

Idalia, located in the Townsville region of Queensland, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to its proximity to the Ross River, and heatwaves during the summer months. These risks are projected to intensify in the coming decades, potentially affecting property values, infrastructure, and the health of residents.

Flooding is a significant concern for Idalia. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, could lead to more frequent and severe flood events. This poses a threat to homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Heatwaves are another major concern. Townsville already experiences high temperatures, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This can lead to heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

While Idalia is located inland, the potential for indirect impacts from coastal hazards, such as disruptions to supply chains and infrastructure, should also be considered. It is important for residents and businesses to stay informed about climate risks and take steps to adapt to the changing climate.

Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the community. This includes investing in infrastructure improvements, implementing adaptation measures, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Fire and Emergency Services · Townsville City Council

Local Government Resources

Townsville City Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Idalia?

The main climate change risks in Idalia are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades, potentially impacting property values, infrastructure, and the health of residents.

How will climate change affect property values in Idalia?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value. Increased insurance premiums and the cost of adaptation measures may also affect property values.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding?

You can take several steps to protect your home from flooding, such as raising the foundation, installing flood barriers, and improving drainage. Check the Townsville City Council website for more information.

How can I prepare for a heatwave?

To prepare for a heatwave, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek out air-conditioned environments. Check the Queensland Health website for more information.

What should I do if a bushfire threatens my home?

If a bushfire threatens your home, follow the instructions of emergency services. If you have time, clear vegetation around your home and prepare a bushfire survival kit. Check the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services website for more information.