Climate Risk in Mornington, QLD

Mornington, Queensland

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Mornington, QLD, faces a medium overall climate risk. The primary concerns are increasing flood, heatwave, and coastal risks due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.2

Heat

7.1

Coastal

5.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mornington

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mornington faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The risk of bushfires in Mornington is moderate, influenced by dry vegetation and prevailing winds. Climate change is projected to lengthen the fire season and increase fire intensity.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

71/100

Mornington is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

54/100

Coastal erosion and inundation are potential risks for Mornington, particularly with rising sea levels. Low-lying areas are most vulnerable.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mornington

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Mornington is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mornington faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

54/100

Coastal erosion and inundation are potential risks for Mornington, particularly with rising sea levels. Low-lying areas are most vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.9

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The risk of bushfires in Mornington is moderate, influenced by dry vegetation and prevailing winds. Climate change is projected to lengthen the fire season and increase fire intensity.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase in the coming years due to the increased risk of extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to bushfires.
3.Consider the potential impact of rising temperatures on energy costs.
4.Inquire about council plans for climate change adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range: 5-15m
Flood Zone: Medium

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 2km
Planning Overlay: QFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodMajor

The 2011 Queensland floods caused widespread damage across the state, including in the Mornington region. Many homes were inundated, and infrastructure was damaged.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in early 2018 resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on the electricity grid.

Source

2020

stormModerate

A severe thunderstorm caused flash flooding and property damage in parts of Mornington.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	42	4.5(+0.3)	4.9(+0.7)
heat	71	7.8(+0.7)	8.5(+1.4)
coastal	54	5.8(+0.4)	6.3(+0.9)

By 2030, Mornington is projected to experience a noticeable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Heatwaves will become more common, and rainfall intensity will increase, leading to a higher risk of flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Develop a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Near-term

Update building codes to ensure that new buildings are more resilient to extreme weather events, including flooding, bushfires, and strong winds.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

About Mornington's Climate Risk Profile

Mornington, Queensland, is a suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased rainfall leading to flooding, and rising sea levels that exacerbate coastal erosion.

The risk of flooding is a significant concern for Mornington. Climate change models predict an increase in rainfall intensity, which could overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure and lead to more frequent and severe flooding events. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly at risk.

Bushfire risk is also a factor, with hotter and drier conditions lengthening the fire season. While not as immediate a threat as flooding, residents should be aware of the potential for bushfires and take appropriate precautions.

Rising temperatures pose a direct threat to human health, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, increasing the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses.

Coastal erosion and inundation are also concerns, particularly for properties located close to the coastline. Rising sea levels and more intense storm surges could lead to significant property damage and displacement.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · QFES · Queensland Government

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Mornington?

Mornington faces increasing risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change. These risks are projected to worsen in the coming decades.

How will climate change affect property values in Mornington?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase due to the increased risk of extreme weather events.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Mornington?

The council is currently developing a climate change adaptation plan to address the risks facing the community. This plan will include measures to improve drainage infrastructure, protect coastal areas, and reduce the risk of bushfires.

How can I prepare my home for extreme weather events?

You can prepare your home by clearing gutters and downpipes, trimming trees, and ensuring that your property is adequately insured. You should also develop an emergency plan and assemble an emergency kit.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Mornington?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Mornington on the council website, the Queensland Government website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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