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Climate Risk Assessment: Rosslyn Bay, QLD

Rosslyn Bay, Queensland
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Rosslyn Bay faces moderate risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly through sea level rise and increased temperatures. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Rosslyn Bay

increasing

Flood

60/100

Rosslyn Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to localized flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Rosslyn Bay is relatively low due to the coastal environment and limited vegetation. However, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Strong winds
increasing

Heat

70/100

Rosslyn Bay experiences high temperatures during summer, leading to heat stress for vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Rosslyn Bay is vulnerable to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges. These hazards can cause erosion, inundation, and damage to infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Rosslyn Bay

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Rosslyn Bay experiences high temperatures during summer, leading to heat stress for vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Rosslyn Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to localized flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.2

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Rosslyn Bay is vulnerable to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges. These hazards can cause erosion, inundation, and damage to infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Rosslyn Bay is relatively low due to the coastal environment and limited vegetation. However, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Ignition sources

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price depreciation.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal hazard zones.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making purchasing decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Rosslyn Bay Harbour
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal Flood Zone

Low-lying areas near the harbour are most susceptible to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
2 km
Planning Overlay
Not significant bushfire overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
No

Limited bushfire risk due to coastal location.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Widespread flooding in Queensland, impacting Rosslyn Bay with heavy rainfall and disruptions to infrastructure.

Source
2013
stormMinor

Tropical Cyclone Oswald caused minor damage and flooding in the region.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected Rosslyn Bay, with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.3(+0.3)6.7(+0.7)
bushfire404.1(+0.1)4.2(+0.2)
heat707.6(+0.6)8.0(+1.0)
coastal606.4(+0.4)6.9(+0.9)

By 2030, Rosslyn Bay is projected to experience increased flooding and heatwave intensity under a high emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Coastal Defenses

Near-term

Invest in seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Flood Management

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems and implement flood-resistant building codes to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Rosslyn Bay's Climate Risk Profile

Rosslyn Bay, located in Queensland, is a coastal suburb that faces several climate-related challenges. The primary risks include flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges, increasing heatwaves during summer, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise.

The suburb's proximity to the coast makes it particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. These events can inundate low-lying areas, damage infrastructure, and erode beaches. The increasing intensity of rainfall events also contributes to the risk of flooding.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Rosslyn Bay, posing a significant health risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate these conditions.

While bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other parts of Queensland, dry conditions and strong winds can still create a potential hazard. It is important for residents to maintain their properties and be aware of fire safety measures.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of adaptation and mitigation strategies. This includes investing in infrastructure to protect against flooding and coastal erosion, implementing measures to reduce the urban heat island effect, and promoting energy efficiency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Government · Livingstone Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Livingstone Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Rosslyn Bay?

The main risks include flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges.

How will sea level rise affect Rosslyn Bay?

Sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying areas, damage infrastructure, and erode beaches.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents should stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The council is developing climate adaptation strategies and investing in infrastructure to protect against climate risks.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Rosslyn Bay?

You can find flood maps and information on the Livingstone Shire Council website.

Get your property's risk report

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