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Climate Risk Profile: Sarina, QLD

Sarina, Queensland· Mackay· 4737
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Sarina is a coastal town in Queensland that faces moderate climate risks. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards, which are projected to worsen with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
4.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Sarina

increasing

Flood

65/100

Sarina faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Sarina is moderate, particularly during dry periods. Areas with vegetation close to residential properties are more vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

60/100

Sarina experiences high temperatures during summer, leading to heat stress, especially for vulnerable populations. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

43/100

Sarina faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges can lead to inundation and erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Sarina

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Sarina experiences high temperatures during summer, leading to heat stress, especially for vulnerable populations. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Sarina faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

43/100

Sarina faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges can lead to inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.6

2050

5.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Sarina is moderate, particularly during dry periods. Areas with vegetation close to residential properties are more vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to bushfires.
  • 3.Consider the potential impacts of sea level rise.
  • 4.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Sarina Inlet
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near Sarina Inlet are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted low-lying areas of Sarina, particularly after periods of heavy rainfall.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of Eungella National Park
Planning Overlay
Refer to the Queensland Bushfire Prone Area Map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas adjacent to bushland reserves are at higher risk during dry periods.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
2 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are susceptible to sea level rise impacts.
Erosion Risk
Coastal erosion is a concern along Sarina Beach.

Historical Climate Events

2008
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Sarina, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2011
floodMajor

Widespread flooding occurred in the Mackay region, including Sarina, due to ex-Tropical Cyclone Tasha.

Source
2018
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused damage to property and infrastructure in Sarina.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in parts of Sarina, disrupting traffic and causing minor property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.7(+0.2)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire404.1(+0.1)4.3(+0.3)
heat606.4(+0.4)7.2(+1.2)
coastal434.5(+0.2)5.1(+0.8)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Sarina is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with heat and flood risks increasing the most.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Protection

Long-term

Implement measures to protect against coastal erosion and inundation, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Sarina's Climate Risk Profile

Sarina, located in the Mackay region of Queensland, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The town's proximity to the coast and low-lying areas makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges. Rising sea levels are expected to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation, threatening infrastructure and property.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Sarina. The town already experiences high temperatures during summer, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to public health, especially for the elderly and those with chronic conditions.

Bushfire risk is also present, particularly in areas with vegetation close to residential properties. While not as severe as other risks, it is important to maintain vegetation and have a bushfire preparedness plan.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. This includes investing in flood protection infrastructure, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and promoting sustainable land use planning. Community engagement and education are also crucial to ensure that residents are aware of the risks and prepared to take action.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Fire and Emergency Services · Mackay Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Mackay Regional Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Sarina?

The main climate change risks for Sarina are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges.

How is the local council preparing for climate change?

The Mackay Regional Council is developing and implementing strategies to address climate change, including investing in flood protection infrastructure and promoting sustainable land use planning.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

You can take steps to protect your property from flooding, such as raising the foundation, installing flood barriers, and ensuring proper drainage.

How can I prepare for a heatwave?

You can prepare for a heatwave by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Sarina?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Sarina on the Mackay Regional Council website, the Queensland Government website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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