Climate Risk Profile: Scarness, QLD

Scarness, Queensland

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Scarness, QLD, faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are key drivers of these risks, potentially impacting infrastructure and property values.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

5.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Scarness

increasing

Flood

65/100

Scarness faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased rainfall intensity

stable

Bushfire

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Scarness is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the potential for grassfires.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Strong winds

increasing

Heat

60/100

Scarness experiences a moderate risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures can lead to heat stress and health impacts, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

55/100

Scarness is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and inundation can impact coastal infrastructure and properties.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Scarness

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Scarness experiences a moderate risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures can lead to heat stress and health impacts, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Scarness faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased rainfall intensity
·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

55/100

Scarness is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and inundation can impact coastal infrastructure and properties.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The risk of bushfire in Scarness is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the potential for grassfires.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Strong winds
·Increased temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties closer to the coast may experience price fluctuations due to climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
2.Assess property's elevation and proximity to the coast.
3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Torquay Canal
Elevation Range: 0-10 meters
Flood Zone: Coastal Flood Zone

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 2km to Dundowran Bushland
Planning Overlay: Limited bushfire overlay areas
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Moderate exposure to sea level rise
Erosion Risk: Some areas at risk of coastal erosion

Historical Climate Events

2013

floodModerate

Widespread flooding occurred in the Fraser Coast region due to ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald, impacting Scarness with heavy rainfall and inundation.

Source

2011

floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted the Fraser Coast region, including Scarness, causing property damage and disruptions.

Source

2009

stormMinor

Severe storms caused localized flooding and wind damage in Scarness.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.9(+0.4)	7.3(+0.8)
bushfire	30	3.1(+0.1)	3.3(+0.3)
heat	60	6.5(+0.5)	6.9(+0.9)
coastal	55	5.8(+0.3)	6.2(+0.7)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Scarness is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surge.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Awareness of Climate Risks

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops, brochures, and online resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Scarness's Climate Risk Profile

Scarness, located in Queensland, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's coastal location makes it susceptible to sea level rise and storm surge, which can lead to inundation and erosion. Rising temperatures are also a concern, increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Flooding is a significant risk in Scarness, with intense rainfall events capable of overwhelming drainage systems and causing riverine flooding. The combination of sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity exacerbates this risk, potentially impacting residential and commercial properties.

Bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other parts of Queensland, but dry conditions and strong winds can still pose a threat. Grassfires can spread rapidly, particularly in areas with dry vegetation.

The local council is developing strategies to mitigate these risks, including improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal protection measures, and promoting energy efficiency. Residents are encouraged to take steps to prepare for climate-related events, such as developing emergency plans and maintaining their properties.

Climate projections indicate that these risks will continue to increase in the coming decades. Sea level rise is expected to accelerate, and heatwaves will become more frequent and intense. Adapting to these changes will be crucial to ensuring the long-term sustainability of Scarness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Emergency Services · Fraser Coast Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Fraser Coast Regional Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Scarness?

The main climate change risks in Scarness are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge.

How will sea level rise affect Scarness?

Sea level rise can lead to inundation of low-lying areas, increased coastal erosion, and damage to infrastructure and properties.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Scarness?

The Fraser Coast Regional Council is developing strategies to mitigate climate risks, including improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal protection measures, and promoting energy efficiency.

How can I prepare for a flood in Scarness?

You can prepare for a flood by developing an emergency plan, elevating your property, and purchasing flood insurance.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Scarness?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Scarness on the Fraser Coast Regional Council website and the Queensland Government website.