Climate Risk Profile: Warwick, QLD

Warwick, Queensland· Southern Downs Regional· 4370
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Warwick is a regional town in Queensland that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting infrastructure and community well-being. Bushfire risk is also a concern.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Warwick

increasing

Flood

65/100

Warwick faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the Condamine River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Bushfire risk in Warwick is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a potential threat. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

60/100

Warwick experiences hot summers, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Warwick is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Warwick

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Warwick experiences hot summers, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Warwick faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the Condamine River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Warwick is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bushfire risk in Warwick is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a potential threat. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property comfort and energy costs.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related hazards.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Condamine River
Elevation Range
400-500m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Condamine River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted Warwick, highlighting the need for effective flood management strategies.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Refer to the Queensland Bushfire Prone Area map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and be aware of bushfire risks during the fire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves can place a strain on the local healthcare system and impact outdoor workers.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
180 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

The Condamine River flooded, inundating low-lying areas of Warwick.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas surrounding Warwick, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2013
floodMajor

Significant flooding occurred in Warwick due to heavy rainfall, causing widespread damage.

Source
2023
heatwaveModerate

Warwick experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.4(+0.4)6.9(+0.9)
coastal101.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Warwick is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood and heatwave risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure improvements to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Plans

Near-term

Develop and implement comprehensive bushfire management plans to reduce the risk of property damage and loss of life.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement heatwave response plans to protect vulnerable populations during periods of extreme heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to ensure a sustainable water supply in the face of climate change.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Warwick's Climate Risk Profile

Warwick, located in the Southern Downs region of Queensland, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The town's proximity to the Condamine River makes it vulnerable to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events, which could lead to more severe and frequent flooding in the future.

Bushfire risk is also a concern for Warwick, with surrounding bushland posing a potential threat. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could increase the likelihood of bushfires, potentially impacting properties and infrastructure.

Heatwaves are another significant climate risk for Warwick, with the town experiencing hot summers. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

While Warwick is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from climate change, such as changes in agricultural productivity and water availability. Adapting to these changes will be crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the town and its surrounding communities.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Fire and Emergency Services · Southern Downs Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Southern Downs Regional Council

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Warwick?

The main climate change risks for Warwick are increased flooding, bushfire risk, and heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Warwick?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Warwick?

The Southern Downs Regional Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a flood in Warwick?

You can prepare your home for a flood by elevating appliances, storing valuables above flood level, and having an emergency plan in place.

What should I do during a heatwave in Warwick?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, stay in air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections